UBS' Alli McCartney: Last week's pullback was a 'buying gift'

Yields

NDX cautious up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

RUT

Oil

Metals cautious up , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

USD

UBS 8.0
Investment Bank $4300.00B
Alli McCartney 9.0

UBS' Alli McCartney: Last week's pullback was a 'buying gift'

metals

Gold being bought as diversifier people have confidence in aside from fixed income, precious metals remain in portfolios due to uncertainty and risk concerns

11/14/2025 1:58:15 PM	short term up	7 days later	+2.12%	+2.12%
11/10/2025 11:21:12 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	-2.26%	-3.39%
10/22/2025 6:37:14 PM	short term up	5 days later	-3.73%	-3.73%
10/22/2025 9:24:32 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-3.73%	+1.87%
10/1/2025 3:08:31 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+3.05%	+4.58%

ndx

December could be an up month Based on strong fundamentals, rate cut expectations, earnings growth, and AI productivity gains, but tempered by major downside risks and uncertainty

11/14/2025 1:58:15 PM	long term up	60 days later	+2.94%	+2.94%
11/13/2025 7:13:56 PM	long term up	60 days later	+2.93%	+2.93%
10/29/2025 12:29:21 AM	short term up	5 days later	-1.16%	-1.16%
10/24/2025 10:16:08 PM	medium term up	21 days later	-3.96%	-3.96%
10/22/2025 6:37:14 PM	short term up	5 days later	+3.64%	+3.64%
9/10/2025 1:15:07 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.17%	+1.17%
8/20/2025 5:59:24 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.65%	-0.83%
8/20/2025 10:38:49 AM	medium term up	20 days later	+3.05%	+3.05%
7/31/2025 8:47:19 PM	short term up	5 days later	+2.42%	+2.42%

Show all ndx results

Asks if market process has been net healthy

Host
Ali McCartney

Last week was a gift - consolidation where funds deleveraged from what had been working

Fundamentals and tailwinds have gotten stronger over last three weeks while technicals deteriorated, making last week a buying opportunity
Ali McCartney

Fundamentals strengthening: 70% chance of December rate cut, increasing earnings, AI trade showing revenue drivers and productivity gains

Consumer still healthy and feeling wealthier, big bill providing accounting-driven tailwinds for institutions to retake risk in new year - very interesting time to be long
Asks about uncertainty from tariff policies affecting outlook

Host
Ali McCartney

Major downside risks exist despite bullishness - peak valuations, poor risk-reward, peak uncertainty in geopolitics, Washington, Fed, tariff policy

Unknown unknowns are very meaningful, explaining why fixed income and precious metals remain in portfolios as diversifiers
Questions health of Bitcoin-Nasdaq correlation

Host
Ali McCartney

Gold being bought as diversifier people have confidence in, crypto fixation reflects portfolio stress

Recent purge may have reset wild behavior seen in Robinhood, Palantir charts back to August levels - painful gut check that may have reset market
Ali McCartney

December could be an up month but don't expect a lot - wait for January positioning reset

Profit taking by individuals and institutions will likely transfer to foundations/charities, then reassess tax liability and risk positioning on Jan 1
Asks about material risk of corporate layoffs in 2026 budgets

Host
Ali McCartney

Material risk exists - companies are overstaffed due to AI productivity gains

Both economic and morale/HR issue - companies may feel more comfortable right-sizing as uncertainty dissipates, similar to Amazon

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