Consumer behavior under no-relief rate environment (with Christina Ruffini; Emily Graffeo)

Deborah Weinswig observes consumers are changing discretionary habits due to sticky inflation and high gas prices. They are 'forgoing' rather than trading down, with spending shifting away from home goods and dining out. GLP-1 drugs are creating a new demand for apparel as people change sizes. She sees AI helping retailers with inventory planning but notes consumer anxiety persists due to conflicting information.

Yields

implicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Coresight Research 2.5
Industry Research Firm
Deborah Weinswig 7.0

Consumer behavior under no-relief rate environment (with Christina Ruffini; Emily Graffeo)

ndx

Consumer discretionary spending is shifting away from home goods and dining out, and consumers are forgoing purchases. This suggests a cautious outlook for consumer-facing equities.

Deborah Weinswig

Consumers are changing highly discretionary habits. If they don't get rate relief this year, this could accelerate.
Emily Graffeo

What is impacting consumer sentiment?
Deborah Weinswig

Gas prices, tariffs, and unease are holding consumers back. 40.4% of weekly survey respondents still have tariffs on their mind.
Christina Ruffini

Which sectors feel this more than others?
Deborah Weinswig

Consumers are less willing to trade down. They've reached 'maximum pain' and are forgoing purchases instead. Food away from home is down 3.6%.
Emily Graffeo

What does this mean for economic growth?
Deborah Weinswig

GLP-1 drugs are a major factor—70% of users change two or more sizes, driving apparel sales. Home goods are being traded off.
Christina Ruffini

Is GLP-1 a big factor in corporate planning?
Deborah Weinswig

Yes, especially in athletic apparel and footwear. Companies are looking at demand forecasting and inventory allocation software. AI is helping.
Emily Graffeo

Do consumers face a lack of clarity on the economy?
Deborah Weinswig

There is no lack of information, but there is too much conflicting information. Consumer perceptions don't always match the data.

SignalTube

markets at a glance