Earnings are fantastic, but memory chip valuations are pricing in a prolonged supercycle of demand exceeding supply through 2028, which is unusual. When capacity comes through, memory chip prices will fall sharply, pulling share prices down. Prefers TSMC, Advantest, Tencent, and Alibaba as they have underperformed and offer better value.
The market is pricing five years ahead, which is risky. Once supply normalizes, the cyclical downturn will hit. Tencent and Alibaba are not reflecting the cyclical bumps and have long-term AI potential.