Torsten Slok identifies three key US growth tailwinds: AI boom, government spending, and industrial renaissance. He expects 5% nominal GDP growth and 2-2.5% real GDP growth. He warns that AI spending is initially inflationary, and with tariffs and energy prices, inflation will likely stay above 3% for 12 months, complicating Fed rate cuts. Key risks: Strait of Hormuz closure (oil spike), persistent inflation, and AI outcomes.

Lindsay Newman discusses the Iran conflict, noting that despite market optimism, a deal is not imminent due to deep mistrust and misalignment between the US and Iran. Key issues include the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program, and missile capabilities. The US administration wants markets to believe a deal is near, but Iran has not agreed on open issues. Europe is developing its own track on Ukraine, signaling a shift away from relying on the US.

Julia Coronado analyzes the labor market, noting conflicting signals: elevated layoff announcements but low unemployment. She says labor hoarding is over and the breakeven for labor supply is near zero. Inflation is coming from supply shocks (energy, Iran war), not wage growth. She expects a demand hit in late Q2/Q3 as real disposable income is negative. She believes Fed Chair Warsh will pursue reform, as signaled by his talk of regime change and hiring outside advisors.