Iran Conflict and Geopolitical Risks (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)

Lindsay Newman discusses the Iran conflict, noting that despite market optimism, a deal is not imminent due to deep mistrust and misalignment between the US and Iran. Key issues include the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program, and missile capabilities. The US administration wants markets to believe a deal is near, but Iran has not agreed on open issues. Europe is developing its own track on Ukraine, signaling a shift away from relying on the US.

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Iran Conflict and Geopolitical Risks (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)

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Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and strained US-European relations could create mixed signals for the dollar. No strong directional view is expressed.

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Newman highlights the unresolved conflict in Iran and the risk to the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key chokepoint for oil. The lack of a deal and ongoing tensions suggest upward risk for oil prices.

Asks Lindsay Newman what she is writing into the weekend given the chaos.

Tom Keene
Lindsay Newman

There is much speculation about the Iran conflict. It's hard to tell if we are inching towards resolution or back towards wider hostilities. The US administration wants markets to feel optimistic about a deal, but this is reality, not a TV show. Trump cannot control all eventualities.

There is deep mistrust between parties. Iran's foreign minister said there has been no further progress on negotiations.
Asks who on the US side is driving the conversation forward.

Paul Sweeney
Lindsay Newman

It is the 'Donald Trump show.' Secretary of State Rubio is involved, but Trump called his cabinet to review the deal. Neither the US nor Iran is eager to be the first to approve.

The two sides have not agreed on open issues like the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program, or enriched uranium. They don't even agree on whether to talk about certain issues like Iran's missile program.
Asks about the new leadership of the IRGC, referencing a Telegraph article.

Tom Keene
Lindsay Newman

Iran did a post-mortem after last year's operations and reorganized the IRGC, its military capabilities, and leadership. The regime remains intact but has diversified and dispersed, adopting a more guerrilla-style approach and a nationalistic leadership tone.

Iran has developed intensive tools of leverage, including over the Strait of Hormuz, which is its new tool going forward, even beyond its nuclear program.
Asks for an allied update on the traditional allies' relationship with the US president.

Tom Keene
Lindsay Newman

Relationships are strained. The UK, Germany, and France are talking about developing their own track to talk to Putin about Ukraine, showing Europe is getting the message that the US will not participate in the same way as historically.

This doesn't mean Europe will support the US on Iran, but it shows a shift.

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