A tentative 60-day ceasefire deal between US and Iran is close, but key sticking points like the nuclear file, proxy networks, and missile program remain unresolved. The deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for the global economy.
Yields
NDX
RUT

implicit
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Stuart Livingstone Wallace 4.0
5/29/2026 1:15:10 PM
wti
The interviewee states that a deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for the global economy. This implies a potential easing of supply constraints and downward pressure on oil prices in the short term.
188 calls
+6
slightly better than random
Rising bond yields are being digested by strong earnings and AI momentum. The market is resilient, and even in a downside scenario with oil at $150, a US recession is hard to see. AI is the key driver, and the trend is seen as macro-agnostic.

implicit

explicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Principal 7.8
Asset Manager $880.00B
Seema Shah 8.5
5/29/2026 1:15:10 PM
ndx
The key thing is still going to be AI. What is happening with that tech rally? That is the main thing that investors are interested in.
3 calls
+4
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
yields
The interviewee states that the rise in yields is being driven by stronger growth expectations and is being digested by equities. They do not expect a repricing of Fed cuts unless the labor market weakens, suggesting a contained move in yields.
7 calls
+2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
AI euphoria may be overextended, but investors are riding the wave. Rising bond yields are relative to high returns in AI stocks. Asian economies are at risk of a currency crisis due to high oil prices, and the dollar is expected to weaken seasonally.
Yields

explicit
RUT

implicit

explicit

explicit
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Mark Cranfield 5.0
5/29/2026 1:15:10 PM
dxy
The overall trend is for major currencies to strengthen against the US dollar, particularly as we come into the summer period, which is traditionally a weak period for the US dollar.
50 calls
-1
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
metals
Gold is really struggling... It's becoming a little bit of a side show. There's not a major factor to drive it one way or the other.
66 calls
+4
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
ndx
The AI euphoria may be overextended... but for now investors are seeing amazing returns in anything with an AI story.
114 calls
+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
wti
The interviewee discusses the risk of a currency crisis in Asia due to high oil prices and supply constraints, implying that oil prices are expected to remain high or rise further in the short term.
188 calls
+6
slightly better than random