Market Resilience and AI (with Francine Lacqua)

Rising bond yields are being digested by strong earnings and AI momentum. The market is resilient, and even in a downside scenario with oil at $150, a US recession is hard to see. AI is the key driver, and the trend is seen as macro-agnostic.

Yields sideways , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

NDX up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Principal 7.8
Asset Manager $880.00B
Seema Shah 8.5

Market Resilience and AI (with Francine Lacqua)

ndx

The key thing is still going to be AI. What is happening with that tech rally? That is the main thing that investors are interested in.

3/19/2026 6:22:02 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.11%	+0.55%
9/9/2025 2:41:59 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+3.48%	+3.48%
8/26/2025 2:40:28 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+3.01%	-1.50%

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yields

The interviewee states that the rise in yields is being driven by stronger growth expectations and is being digested by equities. They do not expect a repricing of Fed cuts unless the labor market weakens, suggesting a contained move in yields.

Francine Lacqua

Rising global bond yields should have implications for other asset classes.
Seema Shah

Rising yields are being driven by stronger growth expectations, which is key. The strong earnings season has helped equities digest the increase. We don't expect markets to reprice Fed cuts unless there is labor market weakening.
Francine Lacqua

Are markets too optimistic on the Iran war?
Seema Shah

There is some optimism, but the key driver is resilience. Even in a downside scenario with oil at $150, it is difficult to see a US recession. The market is driven by strong earnings and the AI rally.
Francine Lacqua

What will drive markets in the next couple of months?
Seema Shah

The key thing will still be AI and the tech rally. As long as tech strength and earnings delivery continue, risk assets can perform well.
Francine Lacqua

Are AI companies not affected by rising interest rates?
Seema Shah

The AI trend is increasingly seen as macro-agnostic and relatively separated from the bond market. The Iran conflict drove investors back to tech for its strong balance sheets and positive cash flow.
Francine Lacqua

Will US equities continue to outperform the rest of the world?
Seema Shah

If a deal is reached, we could see a catch-up rally in global markets that have underperformed, like Europe. There is still demand for diversification away from the AI trade.

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