The Trust Collapse Is Here: Gold, Silver, Copper, Uranium and the Real Asset Reset

Gold is holding steady above $3,300, silver is trading between $37 and $38, and major mining companies have posted strong earnings. The market is showing real momentum in hard assets.

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

Conference attendance grew 50% year-over-year, indicating strong investor interest in the sector.

The high satisfaction rate (99.9%) and vetted exhibitors suggest a high-quality event.

Investors are back and taking more meetings. Is there less fear and more urgency?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

Investors have more confidence, not less fear. The gold price increase has finally flowed through to gold miners' free cash flow, leading to share price appreciation of 100-150% for names like Wheaton Precious Metals and Agnico Eagle.

In 2023, gold was up but miners weren't because central banks bought gold, not gold shares. Now the thesis is proven, and investors understand they are in a precious metals bull market.

Newmont beat earnings, Agnico's margins are strong, and even juniors like Dakota are getting a bid. Is the disconnect between gold and gold miners closing?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

Newmont's quarter was spectacular. They sold off second-tier assets, raised $5 billion, and focused on tier-one projects, leading to excellent operating cost performance and a strong balance sheet.

This has led to share buybacks and speculation about M&A, with the market wondering what majors will do with their cash and high share prices.

Is the lack of aggressive M&A by majors the calm before the storm, or is the industry paralyzed by 2011's PTSD?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

It's both. The industry is still on a tight leash regarding capital deployment after the malinvestment of 2000-2010. As valuations increase and concerns about production growth rise, M&A activity will increase.

The calm before the storm is an accurate description.

What specific companies are you accumulating?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

I'm moving down the quality trail. I already own the best names (Agnico, Franco, Wheaton). Now I'm looking at big single-mine companies that would make attractive bolt-on acquisitions, like West African Resources and Endeavour Mining, because I'm willing to accept political risk.

I'm also going into the exploration space, expecting the bull market to expand there in 18-24 months.

Robert Kaplan says jurisdiction is a top factor. Is jurisdictional risk priced in or underpriced?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

I don't think there are any good jurisdictions. The worst political risk I've experienced is California. I try to avoid technical risk (buy good deposits) and grit my teeth on location.

The Fraser Institute ranks Saskatchewan as lowest risk, but I am more tolerant of political risk than others.

Silver has rallied over 28% year-to-date. Is it stepping out of gold's shadow and investable on its own merit?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

Yes and yes. Precious metals bull markets are led by gold, then senior gold stocks, and then leadership shifts to silver due to its lower unit cost. Silver is incredibly volatile to the upside.

A potential squeeze could occur because daily futures trading volume is 200 times the physical silver available for delivery. However, a complete market breakdown is unlikely; the market would likely suspend contracts and cash settle.

Who is positioned to benefit from a silver supply crunch?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

Producers, royalty holders, and physical holders all benefit. The penalty is borne by those who didn't participate.

Which silver companies are best positioned for M&A?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

There is a shortage of quality silver companies. Traditional silver-centric names include Coeur Mining, Hecla, and First Majestic. For high quality, less correlated names, look to Fresnillo, Peñoles, or Buenaventura. Among juniors, Golden Silver, Vizsla Silver, and AbraSilver are high-quality discoveries.

Generalist money entering the silver equity space is like trying to siphon the Hoover Dam through a garden hose.

Uranium is back around $71.50/lb. Is this a pause or a coiled spring?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

Yes and yes. We could be in a 12-24 month pause due to recession fears, but uranium is a total coiled spring long-term. The increasing prevalence of a term market (locking in volume and price for up to 30 years) will lower the cost of capital for producers.

Cameco's quarter was spectacular, rivaling Newmont's. Their average selling price was $57 vs. a spot price over $70, meaning significant margin expansion when contracts roll over. They have managed the Westinghouse acquisition well.

What is the copper bull case?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

The fundamental case is a structural supply deficit from 30 years of underinvestment. Demand is growing from data centers, EVs, and electrification for the 1 billion people without electricity. The IEA estimates electricity demand will double by 2050.

Tariffs are a bargaining chip, not a fundamental for copper.

Which copper names are positioned to deliver without getting blocked?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

Most investors are better off buying beta with the best names: Teck for Canadians, Freeport for Americans. The cost of developing new mines is rising rapidly, making existing mines more valuable. Senior miners like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Glencore are options, but copper is less important to them.

How are you allocating between royalty plays, producers, and high-risk speculators?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

I'm overweight royalties and streaming for less downside. I'm moving down the quality trail into advanced exploration and prospect generators, expecting them to move in 12-18 months. This will be an epic speculators' bull market in small caps.

This strategy requires hard work, patience, and tolerance for volatility.

Is the real bubble we're living through a trust bubble?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

Yes, we had a bubble in trust from 1982-2022. The erosion of trust in institutions and fiat currency savings products is driving gold's performance.

What happens when confidence in the system breaks faster than expected?

Jeremy Saffron

Rick Rule

Gold is showing its value as a store of value. I believe the US dollar will lose 75% of its purchasing power in the next 10 years, and gold will mirror that on the upside.

In the 1970s, the dollar lost 75% of its purchasing power and gold went up 30-fold. Since 2000, gold is already up 12-fold.

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