The chip sector may be the only thing that matters to global markets right now. Micron, Alphabet and Nvidia are so big they can shift dynamics across asset classes. The reaction in Asia and Nasdaq futures shows how significant this is.

Cameron Crise's studies show these three companies are particularly significant. So much money is pouring into a limited number of companies, sucking funds away from other places like the treasury curve.

PCE is the number the Fed thinks about most. The market still expects a rate hike in H2, but the recent drop in oil prices is not yet reflected in PCE. If PCE is in line or softer, we could see a big drop in yields. We're at an inflection point where the oil price drop has become very important.

It will depend on what Fed Governor Warsh says about the inflation picture. If the Fed becomes more comfortable that the war is passed and inflation will ease as petrol prices come down, they may not need to raise rates.