Geopolitical analysis of Iran deal and Ukraine war (with Kailey Leinz)

Farkas sees the Iran MoU as a near-term win for the U.S. if blockades are removed first, but warns the nuclear deal in 60 days is ambitious. She notes Netanyahu's incentives to prolong conflict and doubts U.S. can force Ukraine peace unless Trump recognizes Russia is losing.

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McCain Institute 2.5
Nonprofit Organization
Evelyn Farkas 7.5

Geopolitical analysis of Iran deal and Ukraine war (with Kailey Leinz)

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Farkas describes the MoU as a win for the U.S., which should boost risk appetite and tech stocks.

wti

Farkas sees the MoU as a near-term win that should reopen the Strait, implying oil supply increases and prices decline initially.

Kailey Leinz

Asks if the Iran MoU extending ceasefire and reopening Strait of Hormuz is a win for the U.S.
Evelyn Farkas

The MoU looks like a win, but the devil is in the details; front-loading blockade removal is critical.
Kailey Leinz

Asks what can realistically be accomplished in 60 days given the 2015 JCPOA took two years.
Evelyn Farkas

Within 60 days they can agree to remove blockades and freedom of navigation; a nuclear deal is possible if Iran wants to negotiate in good faith.
Kailey Leinz

Asks how Israeli strikes on Lebanon could complicate Iran negotiations.
Evelyn Farkas

Netanyahu's objectives differ from Trump's; he wants to continue destroying Iran's military and proxy forces.
Kailey Leinz

Asks whether Trump would use leverage over Israel to keep Netanyahu in line.
Evelyn Farkas

U.S. leverage is military and economic assistance; Netanyahu has signaled he no longer wants U.S. assistance to avoid listening to Trump.
Kailey Leinz

Asks how confident she is that the U.S. can help end the Russia-Ukraine war.
Evelyn Farkas

Ukrainians carry their destiny; U.S. involvement won't change calculation unless Trump understands Russia is losing and presses Putin to compromise.
Kailey Leinz

Asks how weak Russia is and what advancements Ukraine has made.
Evelyn Farkas

Ukraine's success costs Russia more; Russia has 30,000 casualties per month, Ukraine manufactures 70% of own munitions, uses drone swarms to attack logistics.
Kailey Leinz

Asks if anything tangible will come from the G7 on Ukraine.
Evelyn Farkas

Skeptical anything new will come out on Russia-Ukraine; Trump may not fully understand Russia is losing, and Russia is not ready to compromise.

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