Iran interim deal status and implications (with Christina Ruffini, David Gura)

There are conflicting messages on the timeline for the Iran deal; the president says it's happening today, Tehran says not so fast.

Christina Ruffini

Abeer Abu Omar

A Reuters report suggests the MOU includes diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran in exchange for $25 billion of frozen assets, but President Trump has not agreed to these terms. He wanted the uranium destroyed, not just diluted, and hawks in Washington oppose releasing frozen assets from 1979.

The Qatari team went to Iran to mend differences; Pakistan said the deal would be signed electronically within 24 hours, but we are edging towards a delay. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, and Iran insists on management over it once opened.

The president's distaste for the JCPOA is evident; he tweeted this deal is not that. How much are Middle Eastern leaders talking about getting back to something like the JCPOA?

David Gura

Abeer Abu Omar

The leaked 14 provisions of the MOU suggest concessions may be worse off and play into Iran's favor. The main US wins (Iran not getting a nuclear weapon, opening the Strait) were arguably already the case before the war. The deal may not be better than the JCPOA.

Iran has always maintained it wasn't seeking a nuclear weapon (a fatwa may or may not still be in effect). The $300 billion in damages Iran is asking for, plus unblocking assets and removing oil sanctions, all favor Iran. The consensus is whether this is actually better than what existed under Obama.

Sequencing in the deal creates opportunities for Iran to bow out or renegotiate.

David Gura

Jon Finer

Iran should not get money for nothing; payment should be tied to verified steps. Iran believes it has the upper hand and will demand significant compensation (frozen assets, commercial licensing) to end the war.

Iran can allow the war to continue, causing more pain to the US and world than the US is imposing on Iran.

Trump calls the nuclear material 'dust'; it is actually 60% enriched uranium in gas form, buried in tunnels. Iran may try to make it harder to access.

Christina Ruffini

Jon Finer

Trump is not a nuclear physicist; the Obama team had an MIT professor. The material is ~1,000 lbs of 60% enriched uranium. Trump wants it shipped out; Iran hasn't agreed. Diluting it (downblending) leaves it in Iran, re-enrichable. The term 'nuclear dust' makes it seem innocuous, which it is not.

Going from 60% to 90% (weapons grade) is a small technical step.

How to follow the negotiations given conflicting information from multiple sources?

David Gura

Jon Finer

There are multiple versions of events (White House, Iran, Israel, Gulf). The US government used to be reliable; now there is disinformation. We should wait to see the actual published document. If it's short and punts hard issues, we won't know the outcome for another 30-60 days.

The JCPOA was published in full; we have not seen that transparency here.

Asks about the significance of the former Supreme Leader's funeral being held now, and where the body has been.

Christina Ruffini

Abeer Abu Omar

The burial will take place over the next week. The Iranian regime keeps those details secretive, just like the location of the current Supreme Leader. Previously, such funerals brought in millions of people, but we don't know how that will take shape under current circumstances.

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