G7 summit preview and European-US relations (with Christina Ruffini, David Gura)

The G7 summit is dominated by the Iran war and the potential deal. European leaders, facing domestic political weakness, have abandoned the 'appeasement' strategy with Trump after it failed to guarantee results (e.g., US pulling fighter jets from Europe). The summit's agenda is fluid, dictated by whether a deal is reached. President Trump's unpredictability and focus on Iran will overshadow traditional G7 business.

inferred

NDX

RUT

inferred

Metals

inferred

Bloomberg 7.0
Financial Media
Hugo Miller 7.0

G7 summit preview and European-US relations (with Christina Ruffini, David Gura)

dxy

Dollar direction tied to oil prices and geopolitical risk; uncertainty around Iran deal keeps DXY rangebound.

wti

The Iran MOU is in flux with conflicting signals; if delayed, oil supply disruption via Strait of Hormuz continues, keeping WTI volatile. If signed, prices could ease but uncertainty remains.

yields

The uncertainty surrounding the G7 summit, the on-off Iran deal, and the fracturing of the US-Europe alliance creates a risk-off environment that could lead to a flight to safety (lower yields) initially, but the potential for a deal and subsequent economic shifts could cause yields to reverse. The overall tone is one of unpredictability.

The G7 has a host of economic and trade issues, but how large does the Iran conflict loom?

David Gura
Hugo Miller

Up until yesterday, there was speculation a deal was at hand with a signing ceremony in Geneva. The on/off nature of the deal makes it hard to predict. Peace talks have dominated what would otherwise be a G7 meeting about global cooperation.

President Macron is convening Gulf leaders here as well, making it not a G7 business-as-usual event.
European leaders need the US for security, but the White House is messaging potential troop and jet pullouts. Is there a united front among leaders?

Christina Ruffini
Hugo Miller

The NATO Secretary General's strategy of buttering up Trump has failed; leaders like Starmer and Merz have broken ranks. The unified front has been picked apart because even appeasement doesn't guarantee results, as seen with the plans to pull US fighter jets out of Europe.

The mood music will be a less than united front. The communiqué will be parsed for signs that the coalition has fallen apart.
The former Supreme Leader's body is likely to be buried next week; is this significant for business as usual?

Christina Ruffini
Abeer Abu Omar

The burial will take place next week; the regime keeps details secretive. Previously, such funerals brought in millions of people.
Zelenskyy will be at the G7 for a working group. What does the White House hope to get out of it?

David Gura
Josh Wingrove

The hopes are on the other side; Trump has washed his hands of the Ukraine conflict. Europe hopes to remind him of the Ukrainian perspective. Expectations are modest.

Trump has been disinterested in Ukraine for months.
Zelenskyy is at the G7 as an invitee. Ukraine has fallen to the wayside on Trump's agenda. What will his role be?

David Gura
Hugo Miller

It's a working session. Zelenskyy will try to extract maximum support. Six months ago, Putin had momentum; now Ukraine has wind in its sails with drone attacks. The uncertainty is what Trump will do—he sometimes plays Zelenskyy up as a friend, but there was the famous ambush meeting with Vance.
Asks about Zelenskyy's role at the G7 and his meeting with Trump.

David Gura
Hugo Miller

Zelenskyy will use the working session to extract support. Ukraine has the wind in its sails with drone attacks, but Trump's unpredictability makes the exchange uncertain.

Six months ago, Putin had momentum; now Ukraine is more emboldened.

SignalTube

markets at a glance