Iran deal details, durability, and comparison to JCPOA (with David Gura, Christina Ruffini)

How large will Iran loom at the G7, and what is the agenda?

David Gura

Jon Finer

President Trump will make the summit about him. All leaders will focus on whether the Iran war is ending. This war has done enormous damage to their economies, often more than to the US. The agreement likely was available to Trump before he went to war.

The other leaders know this and want the war to end, but they won't feel thankful to Trump for achieving a milestone that was available without the war.

The outline of the MOU looks similar to the JCPOA, but with weaker guardrails. Is this deal durable, and is the promise to immediately open the Strait realistic?

Christina Ruffini

Jon Finer

Details matter in nuclear diplomacy. The JCPOA was 120+ pages with technical details and 24/7 international monitoring. We haven't heard about such monitoring in this deal. The durability depends on enforceability and monitoring. This MOU might be a page and a half, punting hard issues to 30-60 day talks, which could unravel.

Iran believes it has the upper hand and will not end the war without significant compensation (frozen funds, sanctions relief). The US will try to withhold benefits until Iran takes agreed steps, but Iran will use the deal to rebuild its economy.

Talk about sequencing in the deal. By having steps unfold over time, there are ample opportunities for Iran to bow out or reopen negotiations.

David Gura

Jon Finer

The US wants Iran to only get paid when it takes agreed steps (reduce nuclear program, reopen Strait). Iran will demand compensation upfront or in parallel. The sequencing is critical and will be a major point of negotiation.

The president talks about 'nuclear dust.' What form is the nuclear material in, and what is the status of the buried material?

Christina Ruffini

Jon Finer

The president is not a nuclear physicist. The material is roughly 1,000 pounds of uranium enriched to 60% (90% is weapons-grade). It is believed to be buried in tunnels under a bomb facility. Trump demands it be shipped out of Iran; Iran has not agreed. An alternative is diluting it on-site, which leaves it in a condition that could be re-enriched, just taking longer.

The Obama team had an MIT nuclear physicist (Ernest Moniz) as Secretary of Energy, which mattered for technical details. It's not clear the current team has such expertise.

Zelenskyy will be at the G7. Ukraine has fallen to the wayside on Trump's agenda. What will that meeting be like?

David Gura

Hugo Miller

It's a working session. Zelenskyy uses these opportunities to extract support. Six months ago Putin had momentum; now Ukraine has wind in its sails with drone attacks. The uncertainty is what Trump will do—sometimes he plays Zelenskyy up as a friend, other times he ambushed him.

Zelenskyy will be at the G7. What will his role be like given Ukraine has fallen to the wayside on Trump's agenda?

David Gura

Hugo Miller

It's a working session. Zelenskyy uses these opportunities to extract maximum support. Six months ago Putin had momentum, but now his war machine has halted advances and Ukraine has wind in its sails with drone attacks. The uncertainty is what Trump will do - sometimes he plays Zelenskyy up as a friend, but there was the famous ambush meeting with Vance.

SignalTube