Hi, thanks for asking me. Look, it’s evident that much forecasted oil surplus is underway. So far this year, China snapping up a lot of the ongoing surplus, which has helped to support prices because OECD inventories haven’t built aggressively. Market fundamentals are getting looser and will get even more so over the next 3 to 6 months. We expect prices to move around $60 per barrel on a broad basis, which they already hit. Today they’re bouncing on reports of unexpected US-India trade deal but overall fundamentals remain loose.

It's possible. Over next couple months, OPEC is adding around 140 KBD per month, but balances already include assumptions Saudi Arabia will freeze production and Russia will keep production steady. Market is still long next year. Based on calls, OPEC should cut around 2 million barrels per day mid first quarter next year before allowing more barrels by year end.

The longer-term picture looks more supportive. Published balances through 2026 show a rocky path but eventually supply could tighten, with China providing support, possible reaction from shale production and more. Prices may move a bit lower before eventually moving higher.