Introduces the show with facts: US national debt growing by $1 trillion every 100 days, and global central banks have purchased over 2,000 tons of gold in the last two years.

The dollar's dominance has had ups and downs. After going off the gold standard in 1971, the US lost market share. Today, half the dollar block is in Asia, and countries are stocking up on gold and cutting back on dollar holdings. The dollar may be king, but king of a smaller hill.

Asks if intense short-term volatility is typical market noise or early tremors of broader instability.

Short-term volatility is a big thing. The US dollar was overvalued when Trump came into office, more than in 20 years. It has fallen 7-10% but will fall more. Long-term, the dollar's share of reserves will drop from 60% to 35-40% in 10 years, with the RMB, euro, and gold taking share.

Raises the TINA (There Is No Alternative) argument: critics say the dollar is the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry basket.

The euro is a strong alternative. China cannot remain as dollar-centric due to US control of information and potential sanctions over Taiwan. Crypto is also taking a piece. The dollar rose unsustainably in the 21st century and will have less market share.

Asks if volatility suggests the market has lost faith in the Fed's forward guidance.

The average person has no idea who runs the Fed. The Fed has done a good job convincing people inflation will stay low, but surveys show people are less sure. The Fed is under assault, and Trump's attempts to take control will lead to higher inflation over 10-20 years.

Asks if the Fed is trapped between its mandate for price stability and the nation's financial stability due to high debt.

High government debt and high interest rates create political pressure on central banks to lower rates, leading to inflation. The Fed is nominally independent but could disappear in a week if Congress wanted. Political pushback from both left and right makes it vulnerable.

Asks about the underlying disease in the political system that makes pressure on the central bank inevitable.

The US got used to debt being a free lunch during the 2010s and pandemic. Now interest payments are bigger than defense spending. Political pressure on the Fed will mount, and the Fed cannot stand up indefinitely. A shock could trigger a vicious circle of higher rates and more debt.

Asks if the push for Fed governors with different backgrounds is a necessary response to past blind spots.

The original Fed bill specifies diverse backgrounds. Central bank independence has worked well. The Fed has made mistakes, but performance over the last 20-30 years is much better than before. They are not systematically trying to inflate.

Asks how direct executive involvement impacts global perception of the Fed's independence.

If Trump is successful, it undermines the Fed. Presidents have always pressured the Fed (e.g., Nixon), but Trump does it publicly. Long-term rates are unlikely to come down much, and markets don't see eye to eye with Trump on that.

Asks at what point foreign central banks will demand a higher premium for US debt due to political risk.

They will, and I'm surprised it isn't bigger already. Trump won't be president forever, and systems without technocratic independence do worse on average.

Asks if Japan is a model or cautionary tale for high-debt countries.

Japan is a cautionary tale. They used financial repression, forcing institutions to hold government debt at near-zero interest. Now inflation and interest rates are rising, and the system is in trouble. Japan has fallen from being as rich as the US to looking like Italy.

Asks for elaboration on Japan's forced savings mechanism.

Japan's financial system was not operating well, with low returns and slow growth. They avoided a crisis but now face a judgment day with inflation. The Bank of Japan must raise rates, but doing so would bankrupt financial firms, pension funds, and the central bank.

Asks if the US has a softer version of Japan's model, given trillions in 401ks and the Fed's balance sheet.

The US could see a combination of higher inflation, financial repression, partial default, or higher taxes. The most likely is some inflation, and markets don't fully absorb that. Raising taxes is politically unacceptable.

Asks if central bank gold buying is a strategic pivot or disaster insurance.

It's both. Countries are protecting against sanctions and diversifying. The US has sanctions on many countries, and even allies don't want to be exposed. Gold is less liquid but you control it. Central banks are moving into gold, reversing the 1990s trend.

Asks how long the US can weaponize the dollar before it damages its status as a trusted neutral asset.

It has already happened. China is the most important, and as they move away, some of Asia will follow. Modern technologies like blockchain make it easier. The US is fighting back with stablecoins, but it's unacceptable for countries to be that vulnerable to US information sharing.

Asks for thoughts on stablecoins backed by Treasuries.

Stablecoins are the killer app of blockchain, but they need more regulation. Once in the wild, they are not much more traceable than Bitcoin. They are used for tax evasion and illegal activity (20-25% of the global economy). The US is making a mistake by not being more concerned about the network effects.

Asks if stablecoins bypassing SWIFT and Treasury oversight represent a new form of de-dollarization.

There are two aspects: people holding Treasuries (cheaper borrowing) and the US being the back office (information and control). Countries are getting around the latter by developing their own networks and payment infrastructures. Europe and China are doing this.

Asks about the decline of the British pound as a cautionary tale.

The UK lost so much in WWI and WWII. The US was the last country standing. The dollar's dominance is not about losing a war, but losing market share. The dollar was not as dominant 20 years ago. Lucky breaks made it higher, but that will unwind, leading to higher rates and a more dire debt problem.

Asks who the credible successor to the dollar is.

Europe may not have gotten better, but the US is doing damage to itself with high debt, instability, and tariffs. Tariffs reduce the desirability of the dollar. Soft power is declining. The dollar will be significantly replaced, not disappear.

Asks what the world looks like a week after losing reserve status.

It's a slow burn: interest rates rising. That's how the market expresses itself. We are back to more normal long-term rates, and they are more likely to go up. We won't lose reserve status overnight, but will be king of a smaller hill and suffer for it.

Asks if there would be a rush into tangible assets like gold and silver.

It's a slow burn. We are nowhere near the 'suddenly' part. The dollar won't be knocked off unless the US loses a major war. The real story is creeping higher interest rates and debt, which is already painful.

Asks if Bitcoin is a durable store of value.

Bitcoin will fluctuate a ton. It will always play a role in the 20-25% of the global economy that is tax evasion and illegal activity. It's hard to place a value on it.

Asks about the biggest long-term threat to the US economy: inflation or deflation.

Inflation by a mile. It's not even close.

Asks what's more likely in the next 10 years: a major US dollar crisis or a major Chinese banking crisis.

China is already in a crisis, but the government owns everything, so a debt crisis is unlikely. A dollar crisis is more likely than not, in the form of inflation, financial repression, or partial default.

Asks how a leading expert on financial crises structures a personal portfolio.

I hold a very bland portfolio of indices. It's hard to second-guess the market. Wealthy people should hold a much richer variety of assets.

Asks if gold will continue to climb.

Yes, over the very long term. Gold has a lasting role in the international financial system. Gold is the new gold.