Geopolitical tensions and market shrug (with Steve Grasso, Tom Sosnoff)

9/17/2025 5:34:26 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%

Asks about the market shrugging off renewed Middle East geopolitical tensions despite oil being slightly lower.

Steve Grasso

Jay Woods

The market has been shrugging off geopolitical tensions because every escalation quickly de-escalates. The higher-for-longer oil narrative will be the real issue for inflation going forward.

When we get news of a chopper down, the knee-jerk reaction is to sell off, then we attack or negotiate a deal. The market has shrugged it off pretty nicely.

Asks about PPI as a leading indicator given CPI was softer but still shows acceleration, with higher energy prices feeding into inflation.

Steve Grasso

Jay Woods

60% of inflation is cost-push, meaning the Fed can do nothing about it. Rate cuts are not off the table yet despite what 99% of economists say.

Raising rates into a supply shock doesn't increase infrastructure or barrels per day. We entered in an oversupplied state, so oil cannot rally above 100. Downside is more likely.

Asks Tom Sosnoff about ECB rate hike expectations and how FOMO around SpaceX factors into markets.

Steve Grasso

Tom Sosnoff

Bonds haven't moved, trading around 112. We're in a gray area or no man's land. The Fed can neither raise nor lower rates, just a holding pattern in a narrow range.

Until bonds break down under 110 or go back up over 113-114, there's not much to trade or talk about.

Would be shocked if the Fed cuts rates this year. The bond market will be the tell, watching the 4.6 level in the 10-year. If we break above that, it could spell near-term doom for equities.

Cuts are not off the table for 2026. Whenever you raise rates into a supply shock, they've always got to reverse on their decision.

Steve Grasso

SpaceX IPO will be one of the most volatile events. It will overshoot its skis quickly, and the pullback will be very interesting to watch.

A lot of selling in the Qs has to do with people getting ready for SpaceX. Big retail investor base now, question is whether they hold or dump.

Steve Grasso

Tom Sosnoff

SpaceX is overhyped and overpriced. Would not want to own it past the opening. If it opens around 100, maybe buy a dip. If closer to 200 or higher, risk/reward is unattractive.

It will gap open higher, but I don't like the risk/reward at any level after the pop.

Tesla is down double digits over the past month. There's still expectation these two names will eventually merge. As long as tech spending stays, the market stays higher.

Steve Grasso

Jay Woods

As long as spending stays, the market stays higher. For SpaceX, within 15-30 days, 30% of float will be held by indices. Passive investing cavalry could shock people and move it higher in the first month.

You might not get that real quick pop, but you have the cavalry coming with a lot of passive investing.

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