Elliot Hentov discusses the implications of the AI-driven equity raise by Alphabet and others, the muddy deal outlook for the Iran conflict, and the structural shift in bond yields. He emphasizes that the bond market will be the key driver of US policy and that a muddy deal is the best case scenario, with residual risk premium on oil.
explicit
implicit
RUT
implicit
Metals
USD
State Street Corporation
7.0
Commercial Bank
Elliot Hentov 8.5
Commercial Bank
Elliot Hentov 8.5
6/2/2026 12:45:48 PM
ndx
Hentov is not overly bearish on the AI trade, seeing it as peripheral to the oil shock. He expects growth to remain robust, which supports tech earnings, but warns that some business models will struggle, implying selective upside.
wti
Elliot Hentov expects a muddy deal that will allow physical molecules to flow, leading to a residual risk premium but a lower floor on oil. He implies that once the Strait reopens, oil prices will decline from current elevated levels, though not to pre-war lows.
yields
We are not going back to bond yields in February. We will probably go a little lower than where they are today, but that is a permanent kind of pump up in the cost of financing.
Flavio Carpenzano discusses the stagflationary impact of the oil shock on bond markets, emphasizing that the market is pricing too much inflation risk and not enough downside growth risk. He sees opportunity in long-duration US Treasuries and a global approach to fixed income, including Japan and emerging markets.
explicit
implicit
RUT
implicit
Metals
USD
Capital Group
8.5
Asset Manager $2000.00B
Flavio Carpenzano 9.0
Asset Manager $2000.00B
Flavio Carpenzano 9.0
6/2/2026 12:45:48 PM
ndx
He believes AI will drive productivity and corporate earnings over the long term, which supports the Nasdaq, but he acknowledges the bond market is not pricing that in, implying caution.
wti
Carpenzano describes the situation as 'very fluid' and 'clearly stagflationary,' implying high volatility in oil prices due to the binary outcome of the Strait reopening.
yields
We increased duration in the 10-year and the long end. The bond market is pricing potentially too high, and we believe it will hold or potentially cut at some point.
Angelina Valavina provides a detailed timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, expecting it in July due to a confluence of factors including US driving season, economic data, and Chinese oil reserves. She sees a binary risk and a sharp price decline upon reopening, with Brent falling to $70 by September.
Yields
NDX
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Fitch Ratings
6.5
Market Research Firm
Angelina Valavina 8.5
Market Research Firm
Angelina Valavina 8.5
6/2/2026 12:45:48 PM
wti
If it reopens in July, we expect Brent to average between $100 and $110 in July, then fall to around $80 in August, and roughly $70 from September.
Shaniel Kellerman remains positive on equities, driven by strong investor sentiment, momentum, and AI capex. He is overweight technology and communication services, and sees energy as a long-term play due to AI power demand. He is cautious on the IPO wave, noting that passive investors may lack data to judge new entrants.
Yields
explicit
implicit
Metals
USD
IOS7 Investment Management
2.5
Asset Manager
Shaniel Kellerman 7.0
Asset Manager
Shaniel Kellerman 7.0
6/2/2026 12:45:48 PM
ndx
We are still quite positive on equity markets. We have more information technology and we recently increased that. We also have a fairly large exposure to communication services.
rut
He is positive on large-cap tech but notes Europe (which has more small/mid-cap exposure) is a more regulated environment and on the weaker end of the quality growth trade, implying the Russell 2000 may not participate as strongly.
wti
He acknowledges oil prices will fall if the Strait opens up, but sees longer-term demand from AI keeping a floor under prices, implying a cautious short-term decline.