Macro Policy Research on AI, Oil, and Geopolitics (with Guy Johnson, Anna Edwards, Tom Mackenzie)

2/10/2026 6:29:00 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-2.78%	-2.78%
1/29/2026 11:55:11 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.91%	+1.96%
1/7/2026 2:06:23 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.29%	-0.29%
12/22/2025 6:31:04 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.43%	+0.22%
9/30/2025 9:58:10 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.36%	+0.68%
8/22/2025 8:05:01 PM	short term cautious down	8 days later	+0.05%	-0.02%

Alphabet's $80B equity raise and other tech IPOs signal a reversal of the de-equitization trend, with implications for market liquidity and the AI capex cycle.

Guy Johnson

Elliot Hentov

I do not think this is the end of the de-equitization cycle; IPOs are generally not a harbinger of great returns and may signal a top. Some business models will struggle, and the hard part is figuring out which will thrive.

OpenAI's business model has deep questions for the whole capex cycle, which influences my macro outlook. I have to pay attention to private equity to get my forecast right.

What will bring sufficient pressure from a market perspective on the protagonists in the Iran war to bring about resolution? Can oil, bond, and stock markets do that?

Anna Edwards

Elliot Hentov

We have gotten a great economic lesson in how a supply shock unfolds: it spills over into inflation forecasts, bond markets adjust, and that creates pressure on policy. Ultimately, the bond market will be the tool that drives US policy. You need a squeeze to break the deadlock.

That was the case in 2025 with tariffs. I think that's still the case this year.

If we get a muddy deal, do we enter a phase where we worry about the Strait of Hormuz reopening and reclosing as a tool?

Tom Mackenzie

Elliot Hentov

A muddy deal is fine; we know how to price that risk premium. As long as physical molecules are flowing, that worries me less. There will be a residual risk premium and a much higher floor on oil, meaning we won't get as much disinflationary bust from a deal.

We are not going to get a Kumbaya moment. It will be a muddy deal, but that is what we are looking for versus a muddy non-deal.

Is there a residual impact on margins even after a muddy deal, with Brent at $94?

Tom Mackenzie

Elliot Hentov

For the AI story, it is probably peripheral. For the non-AI story, higher energy costs eat at margins, especially for energy-intensive or high-energy-importing markets. Also, a higher cost of financing is a permanent bump up.

We are not going back to bond yields in February. We will probably go a little lower than where they are today, but that is a permanent kind of pump up in the cost of financing.

Structurally higher yields over what period of time?

Guy Johnson

Elliot Hentov

Since the 2020s, it has been one supply shock after another. We have not reached the final endpoint for where yields land.

What are you struggling to price right now?

Guy Johnson

Elliot Hentov

The timing of a muddy deal is very hard to price. A muddy deal in June is very different than in July or August. Each subsequent month changes the forecast for bond yields and inflation.

Currently we are in Groundhog Day. Every day, deal or no deal, the timing really matters because it shifts everything.

With all that uncertainty, where does the Fed go next? Do you think they move this year?

Anna Edwards

Elliot Hentov

Intuitively, if you look at the coming just right now, you would think it would be a step down after the mild stagflationary hit. But thinking deeper, if there is a growth revival by 2027 with tighter labor markets and stickier inflation in the service sector, the Fed might not cut as much.

Some of the factors that led to the softening—huge policy uncertainty last year, tightening of the tariff regime—those come off, and therefore you get a little bit of a revival and a loosening, assuming we have a muddy deal.

Are you saying US companies are re-accelerating?

Tom Mackenzie

Elliot Hentov

Growth rates are already pretty robust. It will be a mild plus, not a huge step.

You aren't worried about AI disruption of jobs?

Tom Mackenzie

Elliot Hentov

AI disruption of jobs I am not worried about. I am worried about jobs because there is always a softening generally, but the factors that led to the softening—policy uncertainty and tariffs—those come off.

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