Rotation, yields, and Fed independence (with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern)

Yields up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX cautious down , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

State Street Corporation 7.0
Commercial Bank $4000.00B
Marvin Loh 8.5

Rotation, yields, and Fed independence (with Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, Annmarie Hordern)

ndx

He explicitly endorses the ongoing 'rotation' story away from big tech as a 'healthy rationalization', implying relative underperformance or caution for NDX versus other areas.

yields

A Fed-Treasury accord where we talk about potentially less Fed buying at the long end, all of that is a higher yield. For me, it still is a duration neutral and potentially steeper curve type of discussion. His thesis is based on a regime change and a shift in Fed/Treasury dynamics reducing demand for long-dated Treasuries.

8 calls

+1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

1/29/2026 11:55:11 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-3.91%	+1.96%
1/7/2026 2:06:23 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.29%	-0.29%
12/22/2025 6:31:04 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+0.43%	+0.22%
9/30/2025 9:58:10 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+1.36%	+0.68%
8/22/2025 8:05:01 PM	short term cautious down	8 days later	+0.05%	-0.02%

Show all 5 yields results

Marvin Loh

It is hard to fade the story of big tech capex, but we are seeing a rotation that is a healthy rationalization of where to put money.

Responding to question about whether it's hard to fight the bullish story of rate cuts, tax refunds, and massive tech capex.
Marvin Loh

The dollar is weaker than expected given growth, and long yields are higher than expected during a cutting cycle. The 10-year yield widening into this cutting cycle is unique.

Explaining why the risk premium from emerging-market-like U.S. policy isn't yet baked into bond auctions.
Marvin Loh

Regime change takes time. We're watching for catalysts. For now, you have to give the Fed and financial system the benefit of the doubt that you can't avoid these asset classes.
Marvin Loh

On a Kevin Warsh-led Fed: It's still a duration-neutral and potentially steeper curve discussion. A Fed-Treasury accord with less Fed buying at the long end means higher yields.

Clarifying his view despite Warsh's historically opposite stance, noting policy is set by committee.
Marvin Loh

I've had a 10s-30s spread target around 120 basis points for some time. Historically that's not overly steep. We need to think about cycles before the GFC when the curve was more naturally steep.

Answering Jonathan's question about what steepness number he has in mind.
Marvin Loh

It's driven by a bit of both—a bear steepener or bear twist.

Clarifying whether his steepening view is driven by the front end or long end.
Marvin Loh

Treasuries are an incredibly interesting asset class. Nobody is incentivized to sell aggressively; it's when they buy less. We're starting to see conversations about less foreign interest because there are 100-year bonds to buy elsewhere.

Explaining why the expected yield curve steepening hasn't materialized yet, in response to Lisa's question.
Marvin Loh

It really does make it difficult if you're playing a trade expecting duration to outperform because the Fed is cutting. We haven't had it and I wouldn't expect it.

Concluding his point on the difficulty of the steepening trade.
Marvin Loh

Yes, we always have concern about Fed independence. The market will quickly punish absolutely bad policy.

Answering Annmarie's question about concern for Fed independence under political pressure.

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