Oil price shock and stagflationary outlook (with Haidi Stroud-Watts, Sherry Ahn)

Yields

NDX

RUT

explicit

Metals

USD

Nomura 8.0
Investment Bank
Julia Wang 8.5

Oil price shock and stagflationary outlook (with Haidi Stroud-Watts, Sherry Ahn)

wti

chances are that as this continue to drag on, then the... a medium to longer-term oil price expectations will start to change as well. Explicitly states that the prevailing expectation of a quick oil price drop is wrong and that medium-term price expectations will rise due to the protracted conflict and supply damage.

3 calls

slightly better than random

3/10/2026 3:24:05 PM	short term up	5 days later	+7.16%	+7.16%

Julia Wang

Prevailing market sentiment that oil will drop back to $80 is wrong; medium-to-longer term oil price expectations will change as the conflict drags on.

The shock is due to physical shortage, not sanctions, leading to broader commodity inflation.
Julia Wang

Asia faces growth stress earlier than others; outlook is stagflationary with fiscal policy and FX management expected.

Secular tech growth is an underappreciated driver, but cyclical parts of the economy will be weaker.
Julia Wang

BOJ will likely fall back to a hold due to Middle East complications; market may take a dovish message, pushing USD/JPY higher.

Stagflationary impact is bigger for Japan, but growth drivers are more diversified than before.

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