Shah: It’s very likely we will see another rate cut tomorrow

Yields cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX up , long term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Principal 6.0
Asset Manager $880.00B
Seema Shah 9.0

Shah: It’s very likely we will see another rate cut tomorrow

ndx

Maintains positive outlook on Mag 7/AI trade as long-term narrative; sees AI benefits spreading to healthcare and other sectors; believes in AI productivity gains despite timing uncertainty.

yields

we are still anticipating at least two cuts next year as the Fed tries to take rates down closer to a neutral rate territory Hawkish cut expected tomorrow signals pause, but trajectory is downward over next year with new dovish Fed Chair likely accelerating cuts.

7 calls

+2

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

9/11/2025 2:16:17 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.37%	-0.18%
9/9/2025 2:41:59 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.05%	-0.05%
8/26/2025 2:40:28 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-5.00%	+2.50%
8/26/2025 2:40:28 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-5.00%	+2.50%
8/4/2025 1:05:57 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+1.88%	-0.94%

Show all 5 yields results

Asks about Fed rate cut expectations, whether hawkish or dovish, and market impact through year-end.

Speaker1
Seema Shah

Expects very likely rate cut tomorrow; anticipates hawkish cut signaling pause to assess economy, labor market, inflation; forecasts at least 2 cuts next year to move toward neutral rate and provide economic boost.

Market pricing 90% probability with no Fed pushback; Fed unlikely to surprise markets.
Questions relevance of dot plot given expected dovish new Fed Chair next year and potential FOMC dovish turn.

Speaker1
Seema Shah

New dovish Fed Chair explains market pricing of more cuts despite constructive economic outlook; market looking beyond dot plot to new Fed composition.

Other FOMC members might become more hawkish to offset new chair, creating navigation challenges for markets.
Asks if Nvidia's China chip sales approval changes view on Mag 7 trade and China runway.

References Yardeni underweight call on Mag 7.

Speaker1
Seema Shah

Maintains positive Mag 7 outlook; Nvidia deal provides upside but AI trade is long-term productivity narrative that will persist despite volatility.

Market focuses on quarterly earnings but AI story is about long-term productivity gains.
Asks about Wells Fargo AI note estimating labor cost savings boosting S&P 500 EPS, with healthcare as biggest beneficiary.

Expresses concerns about consumer and healthcare margins.

Speaker1
Seema Shah

AI narrative shifting to second-round benefits across sectors; healthcare at forefront; timing uncertain but long-term perspective warrants positivity.

Companies across all sectors will adopt AI; investors should take longer-term view if they believe in AI potential.

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