The Trump administration is rebuilding its tariff wall under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, aiming for a more legally defensible approach after the Supreme Court struck down earlier tariffs. The proposed duties cover about 60 countries at 10-12.5%, but face a lengthy process and likely court challenges. Markets reacted flat, suggesting the move was largely anticipated.

The AI-driven market rally is extraordinarily concentrated in semiconductors, but historically such concentration tends to broaden rather than signal a top. Valuations are extended but supported by a profits boom. The guest remains risk-on, seeing no tactical reason to cut equities yet, and prefers owning the index to capture AI winners.

Despite Brent at $97, physical oil barrels are priced ~$50 higher due to freight, insurance, and regional access costs. Financial markets are pricing peace while physical markets face tightening supply. Demand destruction has been minimal so far as countries use inventories, but as summer approaches and buffers tighten, the market will face real tightness.

Turkey's Foreign Minister is confident the US and Iran sincerely want a ceasefire and opening of the Strait of Hormuz, but is cautious about Israel's intentions. He believes the recent Israeli attack on Lebanon violated the ceasefire understanding, making talks extremely difficult, though Trump's intervention may have paused Israeli ground operations.