The U.S. and Iran have reached a tentative agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, with further talks on Iran's nuclear program continuing. The news has raised hopes the conflict could be nearing a resolution.

We are very close to a final agreement. We are reopening the Strait of Hormuz, have decimated their conventional military, and are in a position to substantially set back their nuclear program over the long term. This is a very good thing for the American people.

This time feels different because many Gulf Arab states are participating in mediation. The language from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and J.D. Vance suggests we are very, very close to a deal.

The news has oil once again lower this morning. Brent is trading at $93.30 a barrel, West Texas Intermediate crude at $88.25. Crude has weakened in May on speculation of a peace deal. Brent is down about 19% this month, its biggest monthly drop since 2020.

The interim agreement would be a memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire extension. In the first 30 days, Iran would commit to an unconditional reopening of the Strait in exchange for economic relief. The nuclear file discussions will be more prolonged, potentially taking years.

Israel is stepping up attacks on Lebanon, but the White House maintains the two files are separate. Iran has been trying to weave Lebanon into the bigger file, but for now they are on separate tracks.