CPI, Fed policy, and sector rotation (with Frank)

Jason highlights that headline CPI is up the most in three years, with gasoline up 42% and fuel up 60%, pressuring consumers. He notes a 98% chance of a Fed hike in December. He wants to see healthcare, financials, and industrials join the rally for it to be sustainable.

Yields up , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

NDX cautious down , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

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Jason 4.0

CPI, Fed policy, and sector rotation (with Frank)

ndx

Jason notes semiconductors are 30% of the S&P and 'rolling,' which would drag down the Nasdaq. He wants to see other sectors join the rally for it to be healthy, implying current tech weakness.

yields

98% chance of a Fed hike in December and hot CPI data suggest upward pressure on yields.

Asks Jason for his view on the President's comments and market implications, noting the conflict seems to be escalating rather than de-escalating.

Frank
Jason

CPI headline number is up the most in three years. Gasoline is up 42%, fuel up 60% — these are real numbers affecting consumers daily. There's now a 98% chance of a Fed hike in December. Semiconductors are 30% of the S&P, so when they roll over, the math doesn't work. Need to see healthcare, financials, industrials play into the rally for it to be healthy.

Nine of 11 sectors were up yesterday but the market was still down because semiconductors dragged. Good labor data last week complicates the Fed's policy outlook.

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