AI spending surge is concentrated in 2026; Morningstar expects capex growth to taper thereafter. Memory supply will catch up with demand, softening pricing. Valuations are stretched; 20-30% corrections possible for some tech names. Prefers TSMC, Advantest, and healthcare rotation.
implicit
explicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Morningstar
7.0
Industry Research Firm
Lorraine Tan 8.5
Industry Research Firm
Lorraine Tan 8.5
7/1/2026 9:58:34 AM
ndx
We expect 20-30% correction for a good percentage of the names we cover before they come into areas we think would be worth buying again.
yields
Rising interest rates could kill market rallies and taper consumption; this implies expectation of higher yields.
India's growth outlook improved as oil prices ease, but weak monsoon poses downside risk to food production and rural consumption. Inflation expected to average ~5% in FY27 driven by food. RBI likely to stand pat. Rupee may benefit from improved balance of payments surplus in near term.
implicit
NDX
RUT
explicit
Metals
implicit
Nomura
8.0
Investment Bank
Sonal Varma 8.5
Investment Bank
Sonal Varma 8.5
7/1/2026 9:58:34 AM
dxy
HSBC expects an explosive dollar; stronger dollar is a broader headwind for EM complex.
wti
Oil prices have come down. Every 10% drop in oil price improves the current account balance by 0.4% of GDP.
yields
RBI expected to stand pat; core inflation is low; no aggressive rate moves expected.
Focus shifts from AI model training to usage and inference. Taiwan benefits from localization; Korea faces headwinds from memory oversupply fears and foreign outflows. Dollar strength pressures Asian FX, with Japan and Korea on intervention watch.
Yields
implicit
Oil
Metals
implicit
Bloomberg
7.0
Financial Media
Anthony Stevens 4.0
Financial Media
Anthony Stevens 4.0
7/1/2026 9:58:34 AM
dxy
Dollar strength is a key theme pressuring Asian FX; rate differentials driving dollar versus Asian currencies in one direction.
ndx
Tech rally is maturing with rotation from training to inference; Taiwan benefits but Korea faces headwinds. Overall tech trade continues but with more caution and selectivity.
rut
Korea is under pressure from foreign outflows and memory cycle concerns; Taiwan is broadening but overall Asian equities are fading from strong open.