AI Capex Peak & Market Correction Risk (with Haslinda Amin)

AI spending surge is concentrated in 2026; Morningstar expects capex growth to taper thereafter. Memory supply will catch up with demand, softening pricing. Valuations are stretched; 20-30% corrections possible for some tech names. Prefers TSMC, Advantest, and healthcare rotation.

Yields up , short term, interviewee implicit

implicit

NDX cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

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Morningstar 7.0
Industry Research Firm
Lorraine Tan 8.5

AI Capex Peak & Market Correction Risk (with Haslinda Amin)

ndx

We expect 20-30% correction for a good percentage of the names we cover before they come into areas we think would be worth buying again.

4 calls

-1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

5/19/2026 11:30:08 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-0.73%	-0.36%
11/14/2025 9:35:47 AM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+0.30%	-0.15%
11/10/2025 2:17:07 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-2.87%	+1.44%
10/31/2025 2:00:35 AM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	-4.23%	-2.12%

Show all 4 ndx results

yields

Rising interest rates could kill market rallies and taper consumption; this implies expectation of higher yields.

Haslinda Amin

Stocks seem priced for perfection; valuations are stretched but people are buying into optimism.
Lorraine Tan

AI is the only solid positive story but the explosiveness of Q2 returns is scary because the market is extrapolating strong growth through 2028. We expect spending to taper off.
Haslinda Amin

No sign of correction yet; earnings and capex momentum are there, liquidity remains intact.
Lorraine Tan

Supply takes 2-3 years to come through; tight supply through 2028 but demand growth will taper. Once the market factors this in, there will be further correction.
Haslinda Amin

If we see a correction, will it be shallow or deep?
Lorraine Tan

Correction could be big for stocks that have doubled or tripled. We expect 20-30% correction for a good percentage of names we cover before they become worth buying again.
Haslinda Amin

Investment by Hynix and Samsung will lead to prices easing; is there potential for overinvestment?
Lorraine Tan

The industry is cyclical; supply always catches up. Demand will still rise but growth will taper off from the huge jump we're seeing now.
Haslinda Amin

Could rate hikes by the Fed kill the momentum?
Lorraine Tan

Yes, interest rates have historically killed market rallies. Rising rates could taper consumption and spending. Consumer weakness in electronics and autos would flow through to chip demand.
Haslinda Amin

Has inflation from technology been priced in yet?
Lorraine Tan

Not for the most part. We're only beginning to see incremental pricing come through, impacting consumer electronics. Companies will have to pass on higher prices, dampening demand.
Haslinda Amin

What are you doing if you don't have many buy calls?
Lorraine Tan

We still like TSMC as a laggard, Advantest for better order book visibility, and American Silicon. Healthcare is ripe for re-rating; we like biotech names like V1 in China.
Haslinda Amin

Is China attractive given valuations and improving macro?
Lorraine Tan

China is much cheaper and underperformed. Consumption is weak but services are stronger. Second half should be stronger as fiscal spending comes through. We like Chinese banks as margin squeeze should bottom this year. Tencent is an overlooked AI beneficiary for cost savings.

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