Expects a rate hike from the ECB next week, fully priced in by markets. Views it as a signaling mechanism to ensure inflation expectations do not de-anchor, not necessarily the start of a long hiking cycle.

The ECB has been clear they think this is needed. It's more to ensure inflation expectations, which are important for thinking about how much the energy shock dissipates through the economy, do not de-anchor.

A peace deal before the July meeting could raise risks that the July hike does not happen, especially if inflation expectations soften quickly. Expects two hikes (June and July) but no further after that.

Citing Lagarde's comments that a June hike would happen even with a deal, as high energy prices have already worked through the economy.

Aggregate inflation expectations have risen significantly in the euro area, but not to 2022 levels. Consumer and business surveys show elevated expectations, which are important for second-round effects like wage-price spirals.

The consumer expectation survey showed a marginal fall in three-year expectations, but still very elevated compared to February. Business expectations fell back slightly, which is good news, but still high.

Expects only one BOE hike, in July, not June. The labor market is softening, with falling payrolls and higher unemployment. Policy is already more restrictive in the UK.

The latest labor market report looked soft, with a big fall in payrolls (though Bailey said to take it with a pinch of salt). Wages have started to look soft.

Expects cuts next year following a hike this year, to bring the policy rate back to neutral (around 3.0-3.25%). The current rate is higher than neutral.

BOE policymakers see holding as quite active because they were expecting to cut this year. Not cutting is already more restrictive.