US-Iran geopolitics and Strait of Hormuz (with Lizzie Burn)

US and Iran agreed to halt strikes ahead of talks in Doha. Most serious violence since interim agreement, but talks still on track. Key issues: control of Strait of Hormuz, tolls, nuclear issue. 60-day timeframe for negotiations.

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US-Iran geopolitics and Strait of Hormuz (with Lizzie Burn)

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Geopolitical tensions in Strait of Hormuz create supply risk, but de-escalation and talks reduce immediate threat. Oil prices eased from session high on ceasefire news.

US and Iran agreed to halt attacks ahead of peace talks resuming in Doha. Two sides blamed each other for breaching ceasefire amidst strikes on vessels in Strait of Hormuz.

Lizzie Burn
John Hursk

Negotiations still on track but most serious violence since interim agreement occurred. All items of memorandum of understanding up for discussion. Key issues: control of Strait of Hormuz, tolls charged by Iran/Oman, nuclear issue. Timeframe is 60 days, but nuclear issue under Obama took nearly 2 years.

Both sides blame each other for violating ceasefire. Violence did not derail talks set for this week.
What attacks happened over the weekend?

Lizzie Burn
John Hursk

Thursday: Iran attacked container ship, US attacked Iranian targets. Iran targeted Qatari oil tanker, US responded, Iran launched attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait. No fatalities. Shipping had recovered to ~70 transits/day, still below pre-closure average of 130-135. Control of Strait is key card for Iran in negotiations.

US has drawn red line about tolls and charging ships for transit. This will be front and center in talks.

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