Highlight will be Kevin Warsh on panel. Traders expect at least one rate hike from each central bank (BoE, ECB, Fed) before year-end or early next year. This is opportunity for them to push back if pricing is incorrect. Data this week: ISM, jobs report. Last week PCE confirmed inflation ~4%, way too high for Fed. Market expects rates to remain high short-term.

Warsh said in past he doesn't like giving guidance but if he sees big disconnect between expectations and reality, he might act.

Reaction to past weeks: people focused on curve flattening, used 5-year to short against 30-year. Butterfly trade (2y-5y-10y) out of whack, making 5-year look relatively cheap. Short-term trading setup. If Warsh doesn't push back against rate hike, 5-year won't perform well. If Fed tightens before year-end, 5-year will fall back in line and be vulnerable as people look for big flattening between long and short end.

Bloomberg has story on big players looking for value in middle of curve.