Equity market outlook and midterm election patterns (with Romaine Bostick; Katie Greifeld)

Binky Chadha is bullish on equities, citing a remarkable earnings season with 25% growth and high-teens growth expected for the remaining quarters. He notes that the Iran war selloff was short-lived and that positioning has shifted. He sees midterm elections as a potential source of volatility but historically positive for Q4. He is not concerned about mega-IPO supply, arguing that issuance waves typically occur during strong markets and the impact is manageable.

Yields

explicit

Oil

Metals

USD

Deutsche Bank 8.4
Investment Bank $1338.00B
Binky Chadha 8.5

Equity market outlook and midterm election patterns (with Romaine Bostick; Katie Greifeld)

ndx

I would argue that tech is at a turning point... tech picks up again very sharply.

12/8/2025 6:17:38 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-0.56%	-0.28%
10/3/2025 2:55:16 PM	medium term cautious down	21 days later	+3.37%	-1.69%

rut

Chadha notes that the rotation from mega-cap growth to financials had gone far enough, and the rally is broadening, which supports small caps (RUT).

1/22/2026 2:20:31 AM	medium term up	20 days later	-2.00%	-2.00%

wti

Gas prices above $4/gallon are already impacting consumer behavior. The demand erosion takes time, suggesting sustained higher energy costs.

3/13/2026 12:22:23 AM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	+20.22%	+10.11%

Romaine Bostick

Asks about the continued AI-driven rally and record highs.
Binky Chadha

Tech is at a turning point. The Iran war selloff followed the historical playbook (3 weeks down, sharp but short-lived). The rotation from mega-cap growth to financials had gone far enough, and earnings season with 25% growth has been remarkable.
Romaine Bostick

Asks if the potential Iran off-ramp supports continued strong earnings.
Binky Chadha

The consensus has high-teens growth for the remaining quarters, which is the main reason to be constructive. Markets are up less than 10% year-to-date, which is not unusual.
Katie Greifeld

Asks about the impact of a potential wave of mega-IPOs on supply/demand balance.
Binky Chadha

Equity issuance bottomed in 2023 and is coming back, but as a proportion of market cap, it's not even back to the historical average. Mega-IPOs will be a step up, but issuance waves typically happen during strong markets.
Katie Greifeld

Asks about concerns regarding fast-track index inclusion for mega-IPOs.
Binky Chadha

Not that concerned. The 0.12% of market cap translates to about 1% impact due to lumpiness, which is normal volatility. The fear is there, but it hasn't happened historically and the numbers don't suggest it should.

SignalTube

markets at a glance