Oil, gasoline prices, and Strait of Hormuz dynamics (with Kailey Leinz, Joe Matthew)

Gasoline prices remain high due to refinery constraints and Middle East export disruptions. Getting to $2.50/gallon is unrealistic without Middle East refineries restarting and Strait of Hormuz traffic resuming (still down ~85%). A new tolling regime in the strait could set a global precedent. Some poorer countries already ran out of fuel; by November, gasoline could still be well above $3/gallon.

Yields sideways , short term, gpt inferred

inferred

NDX up , short term, gpt inferred

inferred

RUT sideways

Oil cautious down , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals sideways , short term, gpt inferred

inferred

USD sideways , short term, gpt inferred

inferred

Kpler 1.0
Other
Michel Brossard 7.0

Oil, gasoline prices, and Strait of Hormuz dynamics (with Kailey Leinz, Joe Matthew)

dxy

No commentary on dollar index from any interviewee.

metals

Gold up $11 to $4,026 (+0.3%), no directional commentary from interviewee; market data only.

ndx

Nasdaq 100 up 1.6%, semiconductor index (SOX) up 3.7%, but no interviewee commentary on equity direction; market data only.

rut

No specific commentary on Russell 2000; Dow transports down 0.8% but no interviewee analysis.

wti

WTI at $69.84, down 1.3%; Brent below $73. Traffic through Strait of Hormuz still down ~85% from peaks.

4 calls

+6

slightly better than random

5/22/2026 11:32:06 PM	short term up	5 days later	-9.57%	-9.57%
5/5/2026 2:28:52 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+3.14%	+1.57%
4/29/2026 2:42:39 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-6.48%	-3.24%
3/24/2026 9:02:47 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+13.91%	+20.86%

Show all 4 wti results

yields

10-year at 4.40%, 2-year at 4.12%; no directional commentary from interviewees; market data only.

Asks how quickly oil price declines could translate to $2.50/gallon gasoline.

Kailey Leinz
Michel Brossard

Very difficult to get to $2.50. We need Middle East refineries to restart and export gasoline. Product prices remain high—gasoline cracks relative to crude are as high as during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.

The Pennsylvania refinery upset doesn't help the Northeast. Demand remains high while production lags.
Asks if the president's pressure on retailers/refiners to cut prices to $2.50 is realistic.

Joe Matthew
Michel Brossard

The only remotely possible way would be US gasoline export restrictions, which are unlikely and difficult to implement. Even then, the Northeast would remain high until tankers can move gasoline there.

Refiners could switch from jet fuel/diesel to gasoline, but that would spike those prices further. What we really need is Middle East refineries restarting and exporting.
Asks about the impact of potential tolls/fees in the Strait of Hormuz on global energy markets.

Kailey Leinz
Michel Brossard

The fee structure has let the genie out of the bottle—very hard to put back. It's not just Iran; Oman will also raise prices. Saudis and Emiratis are already planning pipelines to bypass the strait.

The bigger question: what do tolls mean for other straits (Gibraltar, Malacca)? Morocco could charge fees for Gibraltar, changing Europe's energy landscape. This could set a global precedent for tolling natural straits.
Asks if physical fuel shortages were about to happen or if we dodged a bullet.

Joe Matthew
Michel Brossard

Some countries did run out of fuel—East Africa, parts of Asia. Rich countries bought more from global markets and stayed balanced, while poorer countries suffered. Demand response came in three buckets: price-driven, policy-driven, and countries that simply ran out.

Were we on the precipice? Possibly. Richer countries would have maintained, but poorer countries would have continued to see supply diminish.
Asks for a realistic gasoline price forecast by November.

Kailey Leinz
Michel Brossard

Strait of Hormuz traffic is still down at least 85% from pre-war peaks. Need traffic back up, refineries running, and mines cleared. By November, gasoline could still be well above $3/gallon.

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