Fed Outlook Amid War & Uncertainty (with Romaine Bostick, Bailey)

Yields sideways , short term, interviewee implicit

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Federal Reserve 9.5
Central Bank
Eric Rosengren 8.5

Fed Outlook Amid War & Uncertainty (with Romaine Bostick, Bailey)

wti

even if this was to end right away, you're probably gonna have spillover effects to things like food and transportation. It's gonna take some time before the oil would start flowing in a more regular way. Explicitly states that oil supply disruptions will persist for some time, leading to higher prices (spillover effects) in the near term.

49 calls

+7

slightly better than random

3/9/2026 4:35:07 PM	short term up	6 days later	+12.04%	+12.04%
3/7/2026 5:57:18 PM	short term up	5 days later	+8.59%	+8.59%
3/6/2026 9:15:32 PM	short term up	5 days later	+8.59%	+8.59%
3/6/2026 3:21:26 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+8.59%	+12.89%
3/5/2026 5:39:50 PM	short term up	5 days later	-4.02%	-4.02%
3/5/2026 4:38:35 PM	short term up	5 days later	-4.02%	-4.02%
9/23/2025 11:29:28 PM	short term up	5 days later	-2.37%	-2.37%
9/10/2025 9:59:15 AM	short term up	5 days later	+3.45%	+3.45%
8/28/2025 10:35:20 PM	short term down	5 days later	-0.06%	+0.06%
8/20/2025 10:17:30 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.43%	-0.43%

Show all 10 wti results

yields

States the Fed is 'on hold' and 'no change in interest rates' is the likely outcome due to uncertainty, implying yields will remain rangebound in the near term.

Asks how the war will affect the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, given it complicates both inflation and growth.

Romaine Bostick
Eric Rosengren

The war makes it much more difficult to determine both sides of the mandate. People concerned about inflation will be more concerned; those worried about the labor market will see an oil shock and other disruptions causing a potential unwanted slowdown.

Even if the war ended right away, you'd have spillover effects to food and transportation. It will take time for oil to flow regularly.
Asks how the Fed discusses emerging issues like AI layoffs that aren't yet in official data.

Romaine Bostick
Eric Rosengren

Staff forecasts incorporate assumptions about job losses from disruptions like AI. It only becomes more substantive when other types of organizations start using AI to be more productive, which will take longer.

Job loss to this point is relatively modest and mostly in information technology.
Asks how the Fed can battle both inflation impacts and the ongoing war.

Bailey
Eric Rosengren

You can't battle both. The solution to weak economy/high unemployment is lower rates; for high inflation it's higher rates. The committee has to pick which part of the mandate is most likely problematic.

Both sides will use the war to make their concerns more significant. The Fed is on hold until it gets more clarity about the war's outcome.
Asks about the significance of Powell's messaging given potential succession issues.

Bailey
Eric Rosengren

It's a bad time for Fed succession. There's uncertainty about Kevin Warsh's approval and whether Powell will step down as Governor. Powell wants to leave a committee independent from the administration.

Market participants should pay most attention to what the Chair says, discounting other officials' comments.

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