Santa Claus Rally "Very Sensitive" to Headlines, FOMC's 2026 Picture

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Charles Schwab 8.5
Asset Manager $890.00B
Kevin Henkes 8.0

Santa Claus Rally "Very Sensitive" to Headlines, FOMC's 2026 Picture

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So, crude oil rallying today on yet another that Venezuela's ship seized by the US. Geopolitical tensions (ship seizures) create uncertainty, which typically drives commodity prices higher in the short term.

12/17/2025 4:30:43 PM	short term up	5 days later	+3.97%	+3.97%
12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM	short term down	5 days later	-2.61%	+2.61%
10/14/2025 5:34:13 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.29%	+0.64%
9/25/2025 6:01:25 PM	short term up	5 days later	-6.00%	-6.00%
8/7/2025 12:00:18 AM	short term up	5 days later	-1.93%	-1.93%

Requesting Kevin Hanks' thoughts on the Monday morning market.

Nicole
Kevin Hanks

Holiday markets will be thinner with lower volume but can still move, driven by news headlines (e.g., Nvidia, Oracle, Paramount, Warner Brothers, Netflix, crude oil) rather than economic data.

Machines (electronic/high-frequency trading) will continue operating, making markets sensitive to news. Most economic data this week is delayed and unlikely to be the primary market mover.
Asking about Fed Governor Beth Hammack's hawkish views and her upcoming voting role.

Nicole
Kevin Hanks

Beth Hammack is hawkish but one voice; the data trend supports lower rates as inflation falls and unemployment rises, making her case difficult.

CPI data showed lower-than-expected inflation, supporting the consensus for continued rate cuts. Unemployment at 4.6% is rising. Hammack may join the dissent if cuts continue.
Shifting topic to oil, noting a $1.50 price increase and asking about continued tensions from Venezuelan ship seizures.

Nicole
Kevin Hanks

Crude oil is rallying due to a third Venezuelan ship seizure by the US, highlighting uncertainty in commodity markets.

The seized ships are already sanctioned. Venezuela exports 590k bpd (down from 3M), so current events don't increase supply. Commodities rise amid uncertainty.

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