Darren Carroll argues inflation risk is underestimated due to chokepoint friction and US fiscal deficits. He believes the market misinterpreted Fed Chair Warsh as hawkish; his preferred inflation measure (trimmed mean) is 2.4%, not 3.5%. He recommends real income, EM local debt, convertibles, and value equities (European/Japanese banks) over concentrated tech bets.
implicit
explicit
RUT
implicit
Metals
implicit
Schroders
8.0
Asset Manager $800.00B
Darren Carroll 8.5
Asset Manager $800.00B
Darren Carroll 8.5
6/30/2026 9:51:07 AM
dxy
Carroll believes the Fed is not as hawkish as the market thinks and that the US will 'solve this problem,' implying potential dollar weakness if rate differentials narrow.
ndx
Earnings expectations are a bubble as opposed to the multiples. Hyperscalers are going from asset-light to asset-heavy, creating supply chain risks. All of these things do come to an end.
| 3/24/2026 8:51:19 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +6.95% | +6.95% |
| 1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -0.01% | +0.01% |
wti
Carroll expects gradual de-escalation and energy prices to gradually come down, but also says energy sectors are a hedge. This suggests no strong directional move in the short term.
yields
Carroll says inflation risk is underestimated and the US has a 6% deficit to finance, with a third at the front end. This implies upward pressure on yields, though he also thinks the market misinterpreted Warsh as too hawkish.
