India ECM and IPO market outlook (with Haslinda Amin)

Talk to us about how your franchise is different from your rivals.

Haslinda Amin

Vijay Shankar

Investment banking is incredibly competitive. We focus on four pillars: equity research, deep distribution, domain experience in 7-8 vibrant sectors, and a strong ECM franchise. We've invested heavily over 10-20 years.

The IPO market has been muted in the first half. ECM fundraising is about $14 billion vs $23 billion a year ago. What's your take?

Haslinda Amin

Vijay Shankar

We had phenomenal ECM years in 2024 and 2025 with $60-70 billion of activity. This year would have been similar but for the West Asia crisis, which put the IPO market back by 4 months. We still expect $25 billion in IPOs this year.

Filings are 1.5 times higher than previous years. The next six months will significantly make up for the lost momentum.

Can India beat last year's record in equity fundraising?

Haslinda Amin

Vijay Shankar

Absolutely. Large-cap IPOs last year gave 20% listing gains on average and 45% one-year returns. Valuations have corrected in the first six months, making the backdrop encouraging.

New-age companies like Lenskart and Groww saw $2.8 billion in secondary sales within 6-9 months, exceeding their IPO sizes.

Is the market deep enough to absorb what's coming?

Haslinda Amin

Vijay Shankar

Domestic flows were $90 billion last year and are on track to exceed $100 billion this year. FIIs have pulled out $35-38 billion over two years, but net flows were still $70 billion last year. We expect similar this year.

FIIs are beginning to see Indian valuations as attractive and participated heavily in large IPOs with 50/50 FII/DI participation.

How can foreign outflows be arrested?

Haslinda Amin

Vijay Shankar

Exits by PE investors and foreign promoters are natural over 3-7 or 10-year horizons. Their investments in India outweigh exits. I'm not too concerned; it's about increasing FDI and FII inflows overall.

FIIs are churning from some stocks to other emerging markets like Korea and Taiwan, but with valuations corrected in India, they will come back.

Are companies more realistic about pricing?

Haslinda Amin

Vijay Shankar

The market has the right balance and discipline on pricing. Large-cap IPOs gave 20% day-one gains and 45% one-year returns, which is encouraging.

What's the risk for the ECM market in 6-12 months?

Haslinda Amin

Vijay Shankar

Three risks: 1) Geopolitical blow-up in West Asia, 2) Subpar monsoon in June affecting the economy, 3) Corporate earnings slowdown. If earnings recover in a quarter, these risks are mitigated.

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