No. Supply constraints plus new demand from data centers, stockpiling, and defense spending could create a larger deficit.

Tariffs cause dislocations and stockpiling, but real fundamental drivers are country stockpiling for critical materials (400k tons/yr), defense spending (200k tons), data centers (400k tons). Current deficit is 300k tons; adding these could create ~1M ton deficit.

Mines take 5-10 years to come online, so supply response is slow, needing higher prices to incentivize production.

Down towards $50 by end of year. Market is massively oversupplied. Only thing holding it up is Chinese SPR/commercial stockpiling (500k-1M bbl/day). When that stops, party is over.

Chinese buying equals expected demand growth for next year. Expect buying to stop sometime in 2026 (maybe beyond March).

By April, when pause ends, OPEC+ will have to cut. Saudis want to hit US shale, then cut to restore prices.

Trump wants lower prices for consumers ahead of midterms, will take hit to shale.

Central bank buying, ETF buying. Jewelry demand is normal (price up, demand down). Central bank/ETF buying is broken elasticity—they buy more as price rises, driving price further.

Fed cuts secondary. Main driver is uncertainty driving ETF flows and central bank buying, which picks up seasonally after summer/October lull.

Next leg up is $12,500 per ton ($12,500 on copper by the end of $20,26).

Previously thought $12,000 next year when price was $10,000; already there.