Hatfield Bullish on AI and Markets Despite Valuation Concerns (with Matt Miller, Dani Burger)

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Jay Hatfield 7.5

Hatfield Bullish on AI and Markets Despite Valuation Concerns (with Matt Miller, Dani Burger)

ndx

We think you should be holding zero percent cash in this environment. When the Fed is cutting rates, and you have the AI boom, it's pretty obvious you should be long Bullish on AI-driven growth and expects Fed rate cuts to support equity markets for next several years

2 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

yields

When the Fed is cutting rates... Maybe this Fed won't cut rates, but we're confident the next Fed chair will Explicit expectation of Fed rate cuts driving yields lower over medium term

3 calls

-4

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

8/5/2025 10:20:55 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.26%	+1.26%

Jay Hatfield

We think you should be holding zero percent cash in this environment. When the Fed is cutting rates, and you have the AI boom, it's pretty obvious you should be long

Confident the next Fed chair will cut rates, disagrees with Gundlach's 20% cash recommendation
Jay Hatfield

We see tremendous demand for AI. If you're a major corporation and you don't invest in AI, you're going to go out of business. We're five years away from the peak of the bubble

Even utilities are benefiting from AI boom, which is unusual as tech booms are typically capital light but this one is old economy oriented
Jay Hatfield

We adjust CPI for shelter using real-time data. PCE-R is 2% already, CPI-R is 1.3%. Money supply shrinking at 6%, chance we'll have actual deflation

Uses proprietary inflation measures showing lower inflation than official numbers
Jay Hatfield

The bubble is not in most companies, it's in the smaller companies like Palantir trading at 7 PEG or Microstrategy trading at two times its value of Bitcoin

Mag 8 companies are roughly fairly valued at 1.5% cheap using GARP framework
Jay Hatfield

We're projecting 3% growth next year partly due to tax savings and tariff relief, but also with Fed cuts the housing market should improve

Sees tax policy and Fed easing as tailwinds for economic growth

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