Jay Pelosky argues we are in an unprecedented global spending supercycle (AI, climate, defense) driving a sustainable earnings cycle. He is bearish on US Treasuries and the USD, bullish on commodities (copper, gold miners), emerging markets (especially China), and European equities. He expects the US equity premium to shrink vs. the rest of the world.
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emerging markets sharp up
TPW Advisory
4.5
Financial Advisory
Jay Pelosky 9.0
Financial Advisory
Jay Pelosky 9.0
5/27/2026 12:29:20 AM
dxy
The dollar is expensive, the dollar is going to depreciate and that's going to continue to provide a tailwind for the rest of the world.
| 12/29/2025 8:22:19 PM | long term cautious down | 62 days later | +0.14% | -0.07% |
metals
We are very long industrial metals and particularly the miners as well as the precious metals and miners. Copper miners are printing money and are going to continue to print money for years and years. Gold miners' profit margin is better than tech profit margin.
ndx
While Pelosky acknowledges strong tech earnings, he explicitly states the US PE premium will shrink and that the rest of the world is more attractive. The NDX, being heavily US tech, would be affected by this multiple compression even if earnings are strong.
rut
Pelosky is bearish on US equities broadly, arguing the US premium will dissipate. He favors EM and Europe over the US. The Russell 2000, as a US small-cap index, would likely underperform in this environment of US premium shrinkage.
wti
We went long oil in the fall when Wall Street was penciling in $52 for average Brent price. We continue to hold that position, though we've trimmed it over the last couple of months.
| 12/29/2025 8:22:19 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | +2.55% | +2.55% |
yields
The global bond bull market ended with COVID. We have been zero-weighted in developed market sovereign debt for three years and will remain underweight for years. We envision being very underweight developed market sovereign debt through 2030.
