Gareth Nicholson discusses the impact of the Iran war and supply shocks on stagflation, favoring gold, real assets, and quality equities. He sees value in Asian AI plays and private credit, but warns of a market shift towards higher inflation and lower growth.
Yields
implicit
RUT
implicit
explicit
inferred
Fab Asset Management
2.5
Asset Manager
Gareth Nicholson 8.5
Asset Manager
Gareth Nicholson 8.5
6/4/2026 10:58:13 AM
dxy
The discussion of a mixed Fed and a stagflationary environment suggests uncertainty for the dollar. The BOJ considering a hike could strengthen the yen, putting pressure on the dollar, but the overall picture is unclear.
metals
If we're going to have to take a view for the next three, six months buy something turn off my screens, go to the pool. It would be really gold.
ndx
Nicholson is positive on AI momentum but sees a pullback in the US. He prefers the secondary layer of AI and sees value in Asia. This implies a cautious, selective view on the Nasdaq, with a medium-term positive bias but short-term caution.
wti
Nicholson discusses a supply shock from the Strait of Hormuz, but also notes a ceasefire deal is halting Brent's rally. The overall stagflationary view suggests lower growth, which could weigh on demand, but supply constraints are a wildcard. The immediate reaction to the ceasefire is a price drop.
