Jean Simard, CEO of the Aluminium Association of Canada, explains that the war in Iran has depleted about half of the aluminum supply from the Middle East, which produces 20% of all aluminum outside China. Smelters in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE have been curtailed or damaged, and restarting them takes a long time (2 cells per day out of hundreds). The Strait of Hormuz blockade means no new shipments are coming - the last ship took 60 days to reach the US. The full supply shock is ahead. US tariffs of 50% on aluminum have created a price shock and caused Canadian exporters to divert shipments elsewhere. The situation will last 12-18 months before Middle East supply returns.
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Aluminium Association of Canada
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Jean Simard 7.5
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Jean Simard 7.5
5/30/2026 2:06:01 AM
metals
The supply is now depleted by about half of the metal that used to be shipped from the Middle East. The full shock is ahead of us. It will take 12 to 18 months for Middle East supply to come back.
wti
The Strait of Hormuz blockade affecting aluminum shipments also impacts oil shipments. The war in Iran and Middle East supply disruptions will push energy prices higher in the near term.
