Markets underpricing risk that Kevin Warsh could sound hawkish. Everyone thinks Trump wants lower rates, but Warsh could say rates need to stay on hold before cutting. He could revamp communication: tear up dot plot, stop SEP. RBA raised rates 3 times this year (most of any major CB), still sounding hawkish - willing to raise further if needed. BOE expected somewhat hawkish, markets still pricing one rate hike this year due to oil price shock.

RBA message will have implications for other central banks and set tone for German bonds and yields. Plenty of risks surrounding Fed meeting not being priced in yet.