BOJ hike to 1% well-flagged, market reaction muted. Key milestone: BOJ ended paring back of bond purchases, put details in separate document, suggesting close to normal purchasing level. Nikkei briefly hit 70,000 for first time. Press conference key: if Uchida points clearly to more hikes, yen stabilizes; if too cautious, yen could slide further. Statement dropped 'interest rates significantly low' language, suggesting closer to neutral rate and possibly end of hiking cycle.

Overnight swaps show about 52% chance of rate hike by October already priced in. If Uchida feeds into that, good for yen stability.