Ed Yardeni: I've been among the bulls and haven't been bullish enough

Ed Yardeni argues the market rally is healthy and earnings-led, not valuation-led, with ~20% expected S&P 500 earnings growth for the next 7 quarters. He highlights consumer resilience (supported by retiring baby boomers with $89 trillion net worth) and successful IPOs like SpaceX as positive catalysts. The Fed still impacts valuations, but strong fundamentals dominate. He maintains his S&P 500 target of 8250 for the year and 10,000 by end of decade.

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Ed Yardeni: I've been among the bulls and haven't been bullish enough

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Yardeni describes the market as having 'fabulous earnings momentum' with 20% expected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies for the next 7 quarters, and maintains his S&P 500 target of 8250 for the year and 10,000 by end of decade. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) would benefit from this broad market strength and AI-driven rally.

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Yardeni emphasizes the resilience of the US economy and consumer, with baby boomers retiring with $89 trillion in net worth. The Russell 2000 (small caps) would benefit from strong domestic economic conditions and consumer spending.

wti

The price of oil coming down

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+14

slightly better than random

4/13/2026 1:50:50 PM	short term up	6 days later	-1.83%	-1.83%
3/18/2026 6:56:53 PM	short term up	5 days later	-3.94%	-3.94%
3/9/2026 9:00:51 AM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+12.04%	+18.06%

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Yardeni had called for a June swoon based on potential Fed rate hike in July; now asks if the market is clear for more upside in July given falling oil prices.

Speaker1
Speaker2

The June swoon may have already happened on June 5th when payrolls came in strong and market dropped 2.5%, but now with oil prices falling and SpaceX IPO successful, the outlook has improved.

The strong payroll data initially made everyone think the Fed would tighten, but the situation has since evolved.
Asks whether the SpaceX IPO energizes the broader market or is just an Elon Musk phenomenon.

Speaker1
Speaker2

The roaring 2020s thesis is intact; S&P 500 target of 10,000 by end of 2029 and 8250 for this year. The rally is earnings-led (FEMALE = Fabulous Earnings Momentum), not valuation-led.

I've been among the bulls but haven't been bullish enough. Earnings have been unbelievably strong.
High gasoline prices ($4-5/gallon) did not kill the consumer; Mastercard/Visa data shows no negative impact. S&P 500 companies have 20% expected earnings growth for the next 7 quarters.

Speaker4
Speaker2

The economy weathered the Middle East war extremely well; analysts kept raising earnings expectations even during the conflict. The resilience of the US economy and consumer is underestimated.

A lot of that resilience is due to baby boomers retiring with $89 trillion in net worth.
Asks if there is an earnings bubble and whether earnings are sustainable into next year.

Speaker1
Speaker2

An earnings-led melt-up is healthier than a valuation-led melt-up. Multiples are stuck around 2021 levels while earnings have driven the market higher.

There is some risk of irrational exuberance about earnings from analysts feeding on itself, but the data looks solid.
Asks if the market is indifferent to rates and whether sticky inflation and higher-for-longer rates are a risk.

Speaker1
Speaker2

The Fed impacts the market mainly through valuation multiples. The 2022 bear market was short and a great buying opportunity because there was no recession despite rates going from 0 to 5.5%.

The AI launch at the end of 2022 sparked a huge rally. The SpaceX deal went flawlessly and more IPOs are coming.

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