Retail investor sentiment and trading behavior (with Katie Greifeld, Romaine Bostick)

Asks about the 58% bearish retail sentiment figure being unintuitive given the S&P 500's nine-day winning streak.

Katie Greifeld

James Kostulias

The survey was from Q1, influenced by geopolitical events. Despite uncertainty and bearishness, retail investors are confident in their ability to interact with markets, showing record engagement.

Uncertainty around AI trade valuation and Middle East situation contributed to bearishness.

Asks how that confidence is expressed, whether through different engagement levels or single-name activity.

Katie Greifeld

James Kostulias

It's a mix of both. There's a migration from single-name energy to energy ETFs, and a recent move towards high-beta single names in the memory sector. The AI trade is broadening beyond just hyperscalers and Mag 7 plus Broadcom.

When things heat up in the Middle East, investors move to energy ETFs; DRAM has been a popular name recently.

Asks if there is meaningful activity in non-AI or AI-adjacent sectors.

Romaine Bostick

James Kostulias

It's been a lot of AI recently. Energy was popular earlier, and metals were exploding in late January/February. The retail investor is comfortable migrating from sector to sector.

GLD and SLV saw a lot of activity at the end of January into February.

Asks about the uptake of Schwab's new 24/7 cryptocurrency futures trading and the direction of travel towards 24/5 trading.

Katie Greifeld

James Kostulias

Moderate demand in the first weekend, good for the industry. Sees a clear direction towards 24/5 trading in most equities, with CBOE expanding options trading hours. International clients are a key driver for overnight trading.

Perpetual futures that trade around the clock are coming. Episodic volume spikes occur around earnings for Mag 7 stocks or Middle East tensions.

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