White House advisor on jobs, oil, and Iran war (with John Farrow)

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White House 5.5
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Kevin Hassett 7.0

White House advisor on jobs, oil, and Iran war (with John Farrow)

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We know that sometime soon we're going to have a much more stable Venezuela with high stable energy output, a much more stable Iran with high stable energy output, which is going to be very good not only for energy markets but for risk premium around the world. Believes the military conflict will be resolved soon, leading to a restoration of supply and a decrease in the risk premium currently baked into prices.

5 calls

slightly better than random

Asks if the weak jobs report is worse than it looks due to one-offs.

John Farrow
Kevin Hassett

The number is noisy due to weather, strikes, and new BLS model. Averaging with last month's strong number shows job growth consistent with 3-4% GDP growth.

Every other indicator points to strong GDP growth; this is an outlier.
Asks about the disruption to oil supply from the Middle East.

John Farrow
Kevin Hassett

Eyes are on the horizon: a more stable Venezuela and Iran will provide high, stable energy output, which is a huge positive for global markets.

The war is happening because Iran promised to destroy us all, affecting risk premiums. The near-term disruption will be resolved quite soon by the military.
Asks what remedies the White House has beyond telling people to wait.

John Farrow
Kevin Hassett

Sanction waivers are one of many tools in a flowchart. Ready to deploy them, but optimistic the near-term problem will be resolved quickly.

The military effort is 'way ahead of schedule.'
Asks if the SPR could be used to bring prices down.

John Farrow
Kevin Hassett

400 million barrels are ready, but no conversation to dip into it yet. Expectation is the Iran effort is ahead of schedule.
Asks how quickly tankers can get through the Strait of Hormuz with naval escorts.

John Farrow
Kevin Hassett

The military is studying it closely; a lot of progress has been made on a plan. Markets will move quickly once it's clear the US military has resolved the insurance and naval escort issues.

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