HSBC Multi-Asset Strategist on Earnings, Rates, and Oil (with Tom, Guy, Anna)

Yields up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX

RUT

Oil cautious down , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Metals

USD

HSBC 8.0
Investment Bank $1686.00B
Max Kettner 8.5

HSBC Multi-Asset Strategist on Earnings, Rates, and Oil (with Tom, Guy, Anna)

wti

We almost have no oil in our allocation. We're almost completely out. Position is based on fundamental surplus story, not politics. Would close short tactically below $60 on Brent, sees floor around $55 due to shale economics.

5 calls

-5

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

10/21/2025 2:06:48 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+4.80%	-2.40%
10/20/2025 11:51:24 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+4.00%	-2.00%

yields

Front end is mispriced by up to 50 basis points to the upside. Cites Dec 2026 futures level vs. effective Fed funds, arguing one rate cut priced out could imply a hike tail risk.

9 calls

-+0

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/22/2025 2:42:18 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.43%	+0.43%
12/6/2025 1:57:50 AM	medium term up	21 days later	-1.34%	-1.34%
8/29/2025 2:18:19 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	-5.40%	+2.70%

Show all 3 yields results

Asks what will move markets today - payrolls or Supreme Court.

Tom
Max Kettner

Clear narrative is that near-term earnings and growth expectations are still too low, particularly for the US.

Cites consensus expecting 1% GDP for Q4 and a rebound in Q1, arguing even with a government shutdown, big-ticket consumption data shows little impact.
Asks what strong payrolls and a lower unemployment rate mean for the market.

Anna
Max Kettner

The level where rate expectations start hitting risk assets has moved down. The worry is that one or two months of hawkish data is enough to start pricing in a tail risk of a hike, which is bad for all risk assets.

Notes the front end (Dec 2026) is at ~3.05% vs effective Fed funds at 3.65%. One rate cut priced out could start implying a hike.
Asks if the bond market is mispriced in the US and by how much.

Guy
Max Kettner

Front end is mispriced by up to 50 basis points to the upside.

Cites December 2026 futures. Acknowledges the long end is trickier due to Fed buying and supply.
Asks which is more important for equities: higher rates or stronger earnings estimates.

Guy
Max Kettner

For this year, it's more like 2018 - the rates side of things will be the driver, leading to a choppy market.

Expects a 'ping-pong' game where strong data prices in hike risks, then weak data prices them out again.
Asks about his underweight energy position and if it's based on the surplus story.

Anna
Max Kettner

The underweight is very little to do with politics and mostly about the fundamental surplus story.

Says he has almost no oil in allocation, has been like that for ~12 months. Would consider closing short tactically below $60 on Brent, but shale doesn't make money at ~$55, putting a floor.

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