Mike Darda argues the Fed can remain patient because bond market inflation expectations are low and consistent with 2% PCE, indicating high Fed credibility. The key variable going forward is the labor market, especially the unemployment rate. If it falls, tightening expectations may harden. He also notes the Supreme Court ruling on Fed independence is a watch item.
implicit
implicit
Oil
Metals
implicit
bond inflation expectations cautious down
Roth Capital Partners
8.0
Investment Bank
Michael Darda 6.0
Investment Bank
Michael Darda 6.0
6/29/2026 4:59:15 PM
dxy
With the Fed expected to be patient and only modest rate hikes priced in, the dollar is likely to remain rangebound in the near term.
ndx
Darda's view that the Fed will be patient and inflation expectations are contained suggests a supportive environment for growth stocks, though not aggressively bullish.
rut
A patient Fed and resilient economy are positive for small caps, but the focus on labor market risks tempers enthusiasm.
yields
Darda states the expected path of the Fed policy rate is only 30 basis points over 12 months, implying yields will remain relatively stable in the near term.
