Record inflows into Gold ETFs as Silver holders flee! Credit Concerns

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Phillip Streible .0

Record inflows into Gold ETFs as Silver holders flee! Credit Concerns - Metals Minute Phil Streible

dxy

Dollar index kind of holding at these elevated levels Stagflationary environment in other countries supporting dollar at current levels

61 calls

-1

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

10/2/2025 1:50:52 PM	short term down	5 days later	+1.16%	-1.16%
9/29/2025 2:11:15 PM	short term down	6 days later	+0.35%	-0.35%
9/26/2025 2:00:35 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+0.20%	-0.10%
9/11/2025 1:56:16 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	-0.70%	-0.35%
8/28/2025 2:17:15 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.38%	-0.38%
8/13/2025 2:10:59 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.02%	-0.02%
7/31/2025 2:22:23 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-0.52%	-0.78%
7/18/2025 2:12:59 PM	short term down	7 days later	+0.83%	-0.83%

Show all 8 dxy results

metals

Gold up $45 at 4350... gold's advanced 65% this year. Silver up about 72% Flight to safety bid driving metals higher, though silver facing ETF outflows and substitution risks

136 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

10/13/2025 10:52:34 PM	short term up	5 days later	+2.17%	+2.17%
10/13/2025 2:05:40 PM	long term sharp up	62 days later	+4.31%	+6.46%
10/10/2025 2:00:52 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+3.16%	+4.74%
10/2/2025 1:50:52 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+4.52%	+6.78%
9/29/2025 2:11:15 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+2.91%	+4.37%
9/26/2025 2:00:35 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	+3.31%	+4.97%
9/24/2025 2:07:11 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+12.13%	+12.13%
9/22/2025 1:45:19 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+1.42%	+2.13%
9/19/2025 2:06:39 PM	short term cautious up	7 days later	+2.79%	+1.39%
9/12/2025 2:07:34 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	+1.47%	+2.20%
9/11/2025 1:56:16 PM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.46%	+0.23%
9/10/2025 1:41:49 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.20%	-0.60%
9/9/2025 11:14:55 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+5.83%	+8.74%
9/9/2025 2:18:10 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+1.08%	+1.62%
9/3/2025 1:52:44 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+1.97%	+2.96%
9/2/2025 2:02:33 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+0.83%	+1.24%
8/28/2025 2:17:15 PM	short term up	5 days later	+3.64%	+3.64%
8/13/2025 2:10:59 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.91%	-0.91%
8/4/2025 11:45:30 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-0.51%	-0.51%
7/24/2025 2:44:36 PM	short term down	5 days later	-1.17%	+1.17%
7/18/2025 2:12:59 PM	short term up	7 days later	-2.75%	-2.75%

Show all 21 metals results

ndx

NASDAQ down over about 1% as of this recording Concerns about regional bank lending standards, credit quality, and broader market unease driving declines

41 calls

-2

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

10/2/2025 1:50:52 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+1.42%	+2.12%
9/29/2025 2:11:15 PM	short term up	6 days later	+1.21%	+1.21%
9/22/2025 1:45:19 PM	short term cautious down	6 days later	+0.13%	-0.06%
9/19/2025 2:06:39 PM	short term up	7 days later	-0.60%	-0.60%
9/9/2025 2:18:10 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.86%	+1.86%
9/2/2025 2:02:33 PM	short term down	5 days later	+1.48%	-1.48%
8/13/2025 2:10:59 PM	short term up	5 days later	-1.88%	-1.88%

Show all 7 ndx results

yields

10-year Treasury yield drop in one basis point below that 4% now sitting at 3.96 Flight to safety trade driving money into treasuries amid regional bank concerns

70 calls

-2

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

10/2/2025 1:50:52 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.24%	-0.24%
9/29/2025 2:11:15 PM	short term down	6 days later	+0.34%	-0.34%
9/26/2025 2:00:35 PM	short term down	7 days later	+0.51%	-0.51%
9/10/2025 1:41:49 PM	short term up	5 days later	+0.37%	+0.37%
9/9/2025 11:14:55 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	+2.88%	-4.32%
9/9/2025 2:18:10 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.05%	-0.05%
9/2/2025 2:02:33 PM	short term up	5 days later	-3.92%	-3.92%
8/28/2025 2:17:15 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.38%	+0.19%
8/13/2025 2:10:59 PM	short term down	5 days later	+0.21%	-0.21%
7/18/2025 2:12:59 PM	short term down	7 days later	+1.10%	-1.10%

Show all 10 yields results

Phil Streel

Stocks extending Thursday's declines due to concerns about lending standards among US regional banks striking nerves on Wall Street. S&P 500 and NASDAQ down over 1%.

News that Zion's Bank and Western Alliance were victims of fraud on loans. Watch KRE (regional banking ETF) for continued breakdown - holding at support from late July, breakthrough would be alarming.
Phil Streel

Four key concerns to monitor: 1) renewed US-China trade tensions, 2) government shutdown, 3) potential AI bubble, 4) credit quality in US economy.

When trading precious metals or commodities, make checks and balances for things that could crack investment thesis.
Phil Streel

Flight to safety trade in focus: treasuries rising while gold attracts investors to safe havens. Gold up $45 at $4350.

European and Asian investors also looking at gold as flight to safety, getting flows overnight.
Phil Streel

Critical level for gold is $4050 ($300 lower). Silver market whipping around with declines being bought up, but silver has substitution effect with copper/aluminum as prices rise.

Critical silver level at 4825 - break there would go back to neutral trend. Need both-ways strategy as commodities go up, consolidate, break trends.
Phil Streel

ETF flows confirm metals outlook: continued increase in gold holdings for fifth straight day, but major selling in silver - 10.1M troy ounces cut, biggest one-day decrease since Feb 6th.

Total gold held by ETFs rose 18% this year to 98.1M ounces, highest since Sept 23rd. Gold advanced 65% this year, silver up 72%.
Phil Streel

Over $3.4T worth of options set to expire today - largest on record for any October. Stocks seeing fifth straight week of inflows with $12.4B according to Bank of America.

Massive option volume and flows into markets - need to see outflow before calling top on US equities.
Phil Streel

IMF sees significant downside risk to global growth due to renewed US-China frictions. Germany and Canada GDP being downgraded, stagflationary environment.

Dollar index holding at elevated levels against key cross currencies. Dollar down 10 at 97.99, 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% to 3.96.
Phil Streel

Flight to safety: gold, treasuries, exit regional banks and equity positions. VIX continues to surge up 1.58 at 25.65 - will see choppiness in markets.

European stocks declining sharply with US regional lenders. Asian stocks declining hurt by US-China frictions and loan problems.
Phil Streel

96.8% chance of 25 basis point interest rate cut, 3.2% chance of 50 basis point cut. Haven't seen 50bp cuts in outlook since Sept 3rd during rising US-China trade tensions.

New catalyst out there with current concerns. Need to watch markets and look for lower highs developing in broad-based indices.
Phil Streible

So you can see that flight to safety gold. I'll talk to you before I catch a rhee. Exit some of these regional banks, exit some of these equity positions is kind of what's going on in the volatility index continues to surge, so you're gonna see chappiness and many of these different markets with a VIXUP 1.58 at 2565.
Phil Streible

So you go to Europe and you go to Asia, that was what I was talking about earlier with the ETF flows with them jumping in that gold market. You're seeing European stocks decline, a sharp sell-off here, with those US regional lenders here, just going through these markets, the global markets on the growing bank credit concerns. We had this concern back about a year ago, where the markets really washed out on that. It was a lot of talk about... It was like silver lake lending or some bank like that with that type of name had really collapsed and there were a few others along with it that were collapsing as well. So you get these Asian stocks third of climbing hurt by those lingering worries about the US and China, the frictions, the loan problems here. So you get the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapping a two-day gain here, tech and financials where the biggest drags.
Phil Streible

Now when you go to the earnings you'll look at 51%. 51 companies of the S&P 500 are imported earnings so far. 82% of them have be analysts, expectations, 16 of Ms. and two were as expected. What would we be getting out here as far as economic data, September's housing starts, burn building permits, important export prices, but it's all delayed here because of the government shutdown.
Phil Streible

So what are these markets thinking about these credit concerns, these trade tensions and everything else? We got this 96.8% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, a 3.2% chance of a 50 basis point cut. We haven't seen 50 basis point cuts. In the outlook here since September 3rd and that was a rising trade tensions between the US and China. So now we've got this new catalyst out there. So we're getting what I continue to watch these markets.
Phil Streible

Remember, you want to always plan your trades, trade your plan, have a go anywhere strategy here when it comes to these particular markets and we're going to want to look through some of these charts and see if we start to see some lower highs developing in the broad base in the indices.

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