Asks if he has become incrementally more bearish on the US currency.

We have been bearish for the last 12-18 months. As risks around the world look to be peaking, we have increasing confidence in the dollar downtrend. The move is now concentrated in USD/CNY, not EUR/USD, which is interesting given the geopolitical backdrop.

Asks why the switch to CNY weakness.

Two elements: 1) Chinese authorities are openly allowing the currency to strengthen, a clear signal. 2) Broader discussions around the petrodollar, the Iran war, and geopolitical shifts have opened up a broader questioning of the balance of power, helping China at the margin.

Asks if the PBOC report on swap lines is a signal or an attempt to fuel the narrative.

Transactional data shows CNY usage has been rising since the start of the war in Iran. The takeaway is that the policy intention from China is to allow more CNY strength, and despite a large negative terms of trade shock from higher energy prices, the currency is strengthening.

Asks when US policy will begin to set the tone for the next leg of the dollar slide.

US policy is relevant. Over the last 3-4 months, there has been a dramatic repricing of rate hiking cycles in the ECB, BoE, and Asia, but not in the US, partly due to the transition to a new Fed chair. Pricing Fed hikes would be positive for the dollar, but I don't expect that to come back. The other aspect is foreign and geopolitical policy.