Markets balance fragile ceasefire, PCE data, and strong earnings. AI capex is less than 1% of GDP, so no bubble yet. Earnings growth of 20%+ supports S&P 500 reaching 7,750+ without multiple expansion. Volatility expected from Middle East, but history suggests June/July are strong months.

AI infrastructure buildout is a generational opportunity. 20% of high yield issuance is AI-related. Market is differentiating between clean credit stories and sectors sensitive to inflation/war. Sponsor backlog is light, but activity expected in healthcare, industrials, and hard assets. Software sector remains muted with wide bid-ask spreads.

S&P 8,000 target driven by earnings, not valuation expansion. 24% earnings growth expected this year, half from AI infrastructure stocks. Narrow breadth is a yellow flag but broadening expected long-term. Lower oil prices would help rest of market participate. IPO supply manageable vs $1 trillion+ in buybacks. Rate volatility above 50bps in a month would hurt equities.

Headline PCE at 3.8% and expected to stay there. Core firmer due to oil spike but effects still narrow. Real income growth turning negative, savings rate at 2.6% - will weigh on consumer spending. Fed needs war to end and sequential inflation to decline before cutting. Labor market softening also needed. Market pricing of rate hikes is overdone.

Snowflake had landmark quarter with product revenue up 34%, net revenue retention at 126%. AI is compounding Snowflake's advantage in data. New products like Snowflake Intelligence and coding agent Cocoa driving adoption. $6 billion Amazon deal provides economies of scale to lower AI costs for customers. Raised yearly guidance from 27% to 31%.

MoneyGram operates in 200+ countries with 500,000 retail locations. Total payment volumes increasing despite some corridor-specific stress from immigration crackdown. Lower-end consumers struggling but many still thriving. New partnerships like Kraken bringing different customer segments. Business is a need, not a want.